Long-term holders locked up 79% of circulating bitcoin
K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde flagged a record shift in bitcoin’s holder mix in a market report cited by Bitcoin Magazine.
Long-term holders now control 79% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, an all-time high, according to K33. The desk’s key point is not the number by itself. It’s the pattern K33 points to from prior cycles. Bitcoin Magazine says that in every prior major bitcoin bear market, the circulating supply increasingly tilted toward long-term holders as the market approached its trough.
That matters because long-term holders typically sell more slowly than opportunistic holders. If that behavior is indeed returning to “late bear market” norms, it can change how new buyers experience supply hitting the market.
Old-coin reactivation stays near a record low
K33’s thesis also leans on old coin “reactivation.” As of June 6, Bitcoin Magazine reports that only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated in 2026. The report calls it a near-historic low.
For comparison, Bitcoin Magazine says the only year with lower reactivation by the same date was 2012, when 70,600 BTC were reactivated. It also contrasts 2024, when 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated by June 6.
In plain terms, fewer older coins waking up tends to align with a market where supply is not being churned aggressively by sellers who previously waited out the cycle’s earlier drawdowns.
ETF selling eased, but the “reversal” case is not unanimous
Bitcoin Magazine ties the holder shift to easing selling pressure from ETF flows. It says exchange-traded fund outflows, described as a dominant source of selling pressure in recent weeks, have eased. It also reports that trading volume has retreated to yearly lows, a pattern K33 associates with late-stage bear markets rather than the start of a fresh sell cycle.
Another K33-cited metric adds caution. Bitcoin Magazine says 50% of BTC’s circulating supply is now underwater, a level historically reached only within weeks of major bear market bottoms. The report notes that these turns sometimes still come with a “final leg lower” before a sustained change.
But Bitcoin Magazine also records pushback. It says Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have flagged that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand have not yet reached levels consistent with a durable reversal.
Some forecasts cited in Bitcoin Magazine go further, including scenarios that put bitcoin as low as $30,000 before any sustained recovery. Those are forecasts, not triggers. Bitcoin remains an asset with risk, and on-chain timing signals do not guarantee outcomes.
Macro risk waits in the wings
The next scheduled catalyst in Bitcoin Magazine’s rundown is today’s FOMC meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It says markets expect rates to hold steady, while still pricing in the possibility of hikes later in 2026.
Bitcoin Magazine points to bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro during bear markets. It cites bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.6. The implication is straightforward. If the Fed’s tone changes, BTC can react more sharply when the macro-to-crypto link is already tight.
In the same report, Bitcoin’s spot performance is framed as stabilization rather than breakout. Bitcoin Magazine says BTC posted a 5.5% gain over the past week, after two consecutive weeks of double-digit losses, and traded near the $65,000 region as of June 17. Month-over-month, it remains down about 16% from mid-May levels near $79,000 and nearly 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.
The facts K33 and others are pointing at
| Metric | Latest figure (from Bitcoin Magazine) | What it’s meant to signal | Source in article |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term holders share of circulating supply | 79% | Historically aligned with bear market trough approach | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33’s Vetle Lunde |
| Reactivation of BTC aged 2+ years (2026) by June 6 | 218,421 BTC | Near-historic low, less coin churn | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| Reactivation comparison: 2012 by June 6 | 70,600 BTC | Only year lower than current period | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| Reactivation comparison: 2024 by June 6 | 1.18 million BTC | Contrast with prior-cycle distribution | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| ETF outflows | Eased from recent weeks | Reduced selling pressure | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| Trading volume | Retreated to yearly lows | Late-stage bear market profile | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| BTC underwater share | 50% of circulating supply | Historically reached near bottoms | Bitcoin Magazine citing K33 |
| Correlation to S&P 500 (30-day) | ~0.6 | Macro shifts can hit BTC harder | Bitcoin Magazine |
So what readers should watch next
K33’s read, as presented by Bitcoin Magazine, is that bitcoin’s supply dynamics look more like late bear market conditions than early new-cycle distribution. The on-chain mix is tightening. Old-coin reactivation is sluggish. ETF-driven selling pressure appears to be easing.
Still, Bitcoin Magazine also surfaces the counter-case. Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex see gaps in ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand. Macro can also overpower on-chain comfort during decision-heavy weeks.
For now, the market’s “near exhaustion” framing stays an argument built from historical alignment, not a guarantee. Bitcoin holders still face the usual risk that timing signals can arrive early, or be interrupted by liquidity shocks.