Bitcoin’s rebound has made a show of strength after Friday’s sharp selloff. The asset jumped from a local low below $60,000 to about $64,200 earlier today, then cooled back to around $63,000.
The move coincided with calmer headlines on the US-Iran conflict front, according to Crypto Potato. Still, one analyst says this recovery is likely incomplete and could be followed by another significant retracement, mirroring a known pattern from the 2022 bear market.
Price action and liquidation heat
Crypto Potato frames the drawdown as part of a broader correction that started mid-May, after BTC was rejected near $82,000. Friday’s drop pushed BTC below $60,000 for the first time since before the US presidential elections in November 2024.
After that, BTC rebounded fairly quickly to just over $60,000, then bounced to roughly $62,000 over the weekend. Volatility returned yesterday evening after Iran struck Israel in retaliation for attacks against Lebanon. Crypto Potato adds that US President Donald Trump condemned the strikes and suggested the US and Iran might be closer to a peace deal.
Markets didn’t just react in spot price. Crypto Potato cites CoinGlass data showing daily liquidation value has climbed to well over $600 million, with short liquidations leading at $467 million. That detail matters because it signals the latest rally may be feeding off leveraged positioning getting forced out, rather than broad, stable accumulation.
The “don’t trust the pump” warning
The key claim comes from analyst Merlijn The Trader, referenced by Crypto Potato. He previously called a bounce after the $59,000 low, but warned the recovery is not the whole story.
Merlijn’s logic is pattern-based, using the 2022 bear market as the template. Crypto Potato says that in 2022 BTC also retraced hard before capitulation arrived later, after some investors had already jumped back in.
In the analyst’s current framing, the bounce could carry BTC toward $65,000 to $70,000 before a final move down. The suggested “DCA zone” for that later leg is between $48,000 and $59,000.
Crypto Potato reproduces the tweet context in which Merlijn describes the 2022 sequence as Spring near $15.5K, a bounce to $23K, bulls buying the bounce, then capitulation. The same playbook is suggested for 2026, with Spring near $50K, a bounce rally toward $65K to $70K, and the DCA zone listed at $48K to $59K.
Where this could matter for risk, not vibes
Crypto Potato’s point is not that a bearish outcome is guaranteed. It’s that the bounce is currently happening with liquidation pressure still elevated, and that fits the “forced short covering first, capitulation later” narrative the analyst is leaning on.
Even if BTC does revisit higher levels, Crypto Potato’s liquidation detail suggests traders should be careful about treating this rebound as a clean reversal. When shorts dominate liquidations, price strength can be real for the moment. It can also prove fragile if that squeeze runs out.
For readers tracking assets as risk exposures, the practical takeaway is simple. Treat “bounce” as a phase, not a verdict. Merlijn’s warning, as reported by Crypto Potato, is basically: don’t confuse momentum with the end of the drawdown cycle.
Key figures from the desk and CoinGlass
| Item | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Friday local low | Below $60,000 | Crypto Potato |
| Midday bounce peak | $64,200 | Crypto Potato |
| Current area (reported) | Around $63,000 | Crypto Potato |
| Daily liquidations (total) | Well past $600M | CoinGlass via Crypto Potato |
| Daily liquidations (shorts) | $467M | CoinGlass via Crypto Potato |
Watch what changes next
Crypto Potato’s story leaves one clean question. Does price strength hold after the liquidation-driven bounce cools off, or does the market slide into the “capitulation still ahead” scenario Merlijn The Trader expects?
The analyst’s plan also hinges on sequence, not just levels. If the next leg down arrives after a brief push higher, the current rally may end up looking like the early part of 2022’s playbook rather than the final chapter.