Bitcoin’s two-week slide is now past a line it had leaned on for months.
On June 2, crypto analyst Aralez posted on X that BTC “officially” broke below a critical four-month support level. The move landed during a sharp crash that NewsBTC says pushed BTC down more than 8% in a day, with price dropping below $69,000.
The support break that matters
Aralez framed the first downside objective for this bearish phase as filling a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap in the $74,000–$81,000 range. NewsBTC reports that this CME gap had already been completely filled earlier in May when BTC briefly climbed above $80,000.
The context matters because Aralez’s chart work ties the latest selloff to a technical structure: a tight ascending channel defined by an upper resistance trendline and a lower support boundary. NewsBTC says the latest crash broke below that lower boundary near $70,000, after BTC lost $70,000 support and later dipped below $63,000.
By the time NewsBTC wrote the piece, BTC was trading just above $62,000, down more than 2.3% in 24 hours and over 15% in seven days.
| Item | Level(s) mentioned by Aralez, per NewsBTC |
|---|---|
| Four-month support | Broken, per Aralez X post on June 2 |
| Downtrend trigger on chart | Channel support broke near $70,000 |
| CME gap target | $74,000–$81,000 |
| Upside bounce area | $71,000–$72,000 |
| Lower-liquidity area | $65,000–$63,000 |
| Sweep threshold | Below $60,000 |
| Possible bottom area | Near $55,000 |
Aralez’s “final bear play” timeline
In NewsBTC’s summary of Aralez’s plan, the next 30 to 60 days do not look like a clean reversal story.
First, Aralez expects a bounce to $71,000–$72,000 and a period of consolidation there. Then the forecast turns back downward, with a sharper decline toward lower-liquidity levels around $65,000–$63,000.
After that, Aralez calls for a more violent move. NewsBTC says he predicts a sweep below $60,000, with the potential “bottom” forming closer to $55,000.
He also added a behavioral warning. NewsBTC says Aralez pointed to a “sharp sell-off immediately after hitting upside targets” as a sign that downside momentum is still intact. Under that read, any relief rally would be a short-lived reprieve, not a regime change.
“Bull trap” risk and why it’s not just bearish talk
Aralez’s framing is explicit. NewsBTC reports he cautioned against treating the current move as the start of a new bull run, calling it closer to a classic bull trap that could lure investors during a bounce.
That risk isn’t about feelings. It’s about liquidity mechanics. NewsBTC says Aralez urged traders and investors to avoid becoming “exit liquidity,” meaning the market may push prices up just enough for late buyers to absorb sells before another leg down.
The desk can’t verify Aralez’s probabilities from this write-up alone, and price targets are not guarantees. But the structure of the argument is consistent: break the channel support, expect a limited bounce, then test lower liquidity zones until sellers exhaust or buyers step in.
What to watch next
If Aralez’s roadmap has any weight, the key moments in the next window will be the bounce zone ($71,000–$72,000) and whether price rejects there. NewsBTC’s article also stresses that the downside path has “least resistance” toward lower levels.
For readers, the practical takeaway is simple. BTC is still being treated as an asset with risk rather than a guaranteed recovery waiting to happen. Any bounce described by Aralez’s scenario would still operate under the assumption that deeper weakness can follow, including a move below $60,000 and potential tests around $55,000, as NewsBTC reports.
Featured image from Pngtree. Chart from TradingView.com.