Bitcoin keeps dropping. The worry is bigger than momentum. This cycle has even pulled some observers toward the idea of a $25,000 bottom.
On June 6, crypto analyst Ted Pillows argued that scenario is unlikely, using a metric he says has a better track record than wishful charting. The tool is the Bitcoin Electrical Cost model.
Why “electrical cost” matters in this argument
Pillows’ core claim is straightforward. The Electrical Cost model estimates Bitcoin’s fundamental production costs by tracking the electricity required to mine new BTC. Because mining consumes heavy energy, he treats the metric as a proxy for the minimum sustainable price miners can operate at over the long term.
In his post, Pillows added a historical rule of thumb. Bitcoin bear markets have never fallen below this Electrical Cost level. Instead, they have tended to form bottoms near it, even during sharp drawdowns.
Right now, Pillows put Bitcoin’s Electrical Cost at about $48,694. He framed that as a threshold that still sits above the current market level, implying support could show up around $50,000 if the selloff persists.
But he also attached a condition that matters for traders and holders alike. He said it would take an extraordinary global event to break that support zone.
His example is blunt. In a recession or a pandemic severe enough to resemble COVID, panic-driven selling could push Bitcoin temporarily below estimated production cost.
The market doesn’t look “only bearish” on Binance
A separate thread comes from CryptoQuant’s Quicktake, via analyst CryptoOnchain. The contradiction is the point. Technicals look bad, but Binance activity suggests accumulation.
CryptoOnchain flagged bearish signals like RSI(14) near 6.4, and a Death Cross on the EMA50/200. In normal terms, those readouts align with downside pressure.
At the same time, Binance’s Exchange Netflows reportedly reads negative at -0.58σ. CryptoOnchain interprets that as BTC leaving Binance consistently, which he frames as holders accumulating rather than panic-selling.
Here’s where risk-management brains should kick in. CryptoOnchain still warned of a “long squeeze” risk due to high Open Interest. That means even if spot-side accumulation is happening, leveraged positioning can amplify moves in either direction when price breaks key levels.
What the numbers say right now
Below is what the source text provides. Note the mix of model-based support and flow and derivatives risk.
| Signal type | Source | Current figure in the report | What it implies in this story |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical Cost | Ted Pillows (X post, June 6) | ~$48,694 | Bear markets historically haven’t fallen below this level |
| Implied support zone | Ted Pillows (X post, June 6) | ~ $50,000 | Potential support if the downturn continues |
| RSI(14) | CryptoOnchain (CryptoQuant Quicktake) | ~ 6.4 | Bearish technical conditions |
| EMA50/200 | CryptoOnchain (CryptoQuant Quicktake) | Death Cross | Continued downside bias |
| Binance exchange netflows | CryptoOnchain (CryptoQuant Quicktake) | -0.58σ | BTC leaving Binance, interpreted as accumulation |
| Open interest threat | CryptoOnchain (CryptoQuant Quicktake) | “High Open Interest” | Long squeeze risk remains |
| BTC spot price at time of writing | Source text | ~$602,388 | The report says BTC is up ~3% in 24 hours |
So the “floor” argument isn’t a free pass
Pillows’ Electrical Cost framework is an attempt to anchor the debate in mining economics rather than candles. The report’s logic also leans on a historical claim that bear markets haven’t undercut that production-cost estimate.
But the same post sets the ceiling on confidence. If the world hits a severe recession or a COVID-like shock, Pillows expects panic sales could temporarily violate that zone.
Meanwhile, CryptoOnchain’s Binance read adds a second layer. Even with bearish RSI and a Death Cross, the netflows picture points to coins moving off exchanges. That doesn’t remove downside risk. It just suggests the selling impulse may not be as simple as “everyone is dumping.”
And with long positions supposedly swollen, the derivatives side can still force sharp moves.
For now, the report’s core takeaway is not a guaranteed floor. It’s a monitored level. Support at or around the Electrical Cost estimate could hold. Or, in a high-stress macro event, it could break temporarily while leverage does the rest.