Bitcoin has a habit of rewarding certainty with disappointment. The latest read does not say “bottom confirmed.” It says “not yet.”
CoinDesk highlights one “simple way” to judge whether Bitcoin has really bottomed. The method looks at Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). In multiple prior cycles, CoinDesk says this weekly RSI contains a critical level that has reliably separated bull and bear market regimes.
The signal has not flipped
CoinDesk’s claim is straightforward. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is still below the critical line it needs to clear. In other words, the regime filter has not turned from “bear” to “bull” based on that historical separator.
This matters because many market narratives focus on price levels after the fact. CoinDesk is pointing instead to a momentum-and-positioning proxy derived from weekly momentum. It is not a guarantee. But it is a testable condition that has matched regime changes in past cycles.
Why a “bottom” label needs confirmation
A “bottom” is a loaded word in crypto markets. It gets used whenever selling pressure eases, even if the broader regime remains unstable. CoinDesk’s framework pushes back on that impulse by tying the label to a metric that has previously marked regime shifts.
If the weekly RSI has not cleared its critical threshold yet, CoinDesk implies you should treat the current state as an incomplete transition rather than a completed one.
The catch: history does not certify the next print
CoinDesk’s point is retrospective validation. It says the weekly RSI level has worked “across multiple cycles.” That supports the indicator’s credibility. It does not eliminate risk.
Bitcoin assets remain volatile. Even if a historical separator is holding, market structure can still change because of macro shocks, liquidity shifts, or crypto-specific catalysts. A regime filter can lag. It can also fail.
So the practical takeaway from CoinDesk is not “Bitcoin will drop.” It is “the usual momentum regime confirmation has not happened yet, so be cautious with bottom claims.”
the usual momentum regime confirmation has not happened yet, so be cautious with bottom claims.
What to watch next
Based on CoinDesk’s framing, the next milestone is the weekly RSI clearing its critical level. That event would mean the indicator finally confirms the regime split it has used before.
Until then, CoinDesk’s read is that Bitcoin has not met its own historical bar for a confirmed bottom. That keeps the door open for further whipsaws even if the worst selling pressure has cooled.