Bitcoin’s latest leg down started with a sharp rejection at $82,000, then carried BTC to $59,000 on Friday. Crypto Potato flags $59,000 as the lowest print since before the US presidential election in November 2024.
That kind of drop usually forces one question fast. Is this the bottom, or just another move lower? Crypto Potato frames the debate around a pair of long-term indicators that are flashing mixed signals.
Rainbow chart breach raises “deeply undervalued” talk
One of the strongest signals in the story comes from analyst Crypto Rover and his “rainbow chart” model. According to Crypto Potato, BTC declined below the rainbow chart, and Crypto Rover says this is only the second time it has happened in the asset’s recent history.
Crypto Potato also notes why this matters. The model’s rarity is tied to “extreme market conditions.” In the last instance, during the 2022 bear market, BTC sold off toward roughly $15,000.
The current reference points Crypto Rover highlighted, per Crypto Potato, are:
| Event | Rainbow chart occurrence | Referenced price level |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | ~$15,500 |
| 2026 | 2 | ~$63,000 |
The tricky part is timing. Crypto Potato says that while BTC rebounded from the $59,000 low, it still sits below the rainbow chart “even after managing to rebound.” That keeps the “close to bottom” argument alive for long-term holders, but it also leaves the door open to another downside attempt.
The 200-week EMA becomes the make-or-break line
A second long-term level is pulling focus: the 200-week exponential moving average, raised by analyst CRYPTOWZRD. Crypto Potato reports that it has historically acted as reliable support during bear markets.
In most past cycles, Crypto Potato says BTC bottomed either at or very near this moving average. Right now, BTC is “testing it.” The immediate implication in the source is conditional.
If BTC holds above the 200-week EMA and then reclaims momentum, Crypto Potato says it would strengthen the case for a bottom forming in the low-$60,000 range.
If it fails, the same source warns that a clean breakdown would likely invite deeper losses and stretch out the correction.
Rekt Capital pushes back: not the same 2022 pattern yet
Crypto Potato then undercuts the “bottom is near” narrative with a contrasting read from Rekt Capital. The analyst compared the current bear phase to 2022 and pointed to a mismatch in how BTC diverged from past all-time highs.
Crypto Potato includes one specific metric. In 2022, BTC deviated 22% below its 2017 all-time high. In the current drawdown, Crypto Potato says BTC has not yet fallen just 12% under the 2021 all-time high.
Rekt Capital’s conclusion, as quoted in the source, is blunt. Crypto Potato says the analyst believes BTC is getting close to a bottom, but “it’s not there quite yet” and there is “still time left.”
Mixed signals mean “close” is not “done”
Crypto Potato ends the argument where it started, with conflict between long-term valuation models and what the price action is actually doing.
BTC is near two historically important markers. It has also crossed below the rainbow chart’s boundary for a second time in recent history. But the asset remains below that model, and Rekt Capital’s cycle comparison suggests the bear phase still hasn’t converged onto the 2022 trajectory.
Crypto Potato describes the current period as a “make-or-break” phase driven by elevated volatility. In practice, that means investors should treat “near a bottom” as a hypothesis, not a verdict, until BTC either holds the 200-week EMA and regains momentum or breaks down and extends the correction.