What the “Supply in Loss” signal says
A NewsBTC report points to an on-chain metric called Bitcoin Supply in Loss. It tracks how many coins were last moved at a price above the current market value. In other words, it estimates how much BTC supply is sitting in unrealized loss.
The desk takeaway from the cited June 7 X post by analyst Ali Martinez is simple. When “Supply in Loss” spikes near extreme levels, it often maps to periods of system-wide investor fear. Martinez frames it as pressure building from holders who are underwater. When enough holders stop selling, downside can stall and a bottom can form.
The 10 million BTC underwater line, and why it matters
Martinez’s specific claim relies on Glassnode data. According to that data highlighted in the report, Bitcoin has 10.46 million coins in loss, described as more than half of circulating supply.
The report draws a historical parallel. It says Bitcoin saw bullish reversals when the metric crossed 10 million BTC held at a loss in:
- Late 2018, where “Supply in Loss” cleared the threshold.
- 2022, when the metric again climbed to around the same mark.
That is the crux of the bullish case the report relays. Martinez argues selling pressure tends to fade as fewer investors are willing to realize losses. If fewer coins hit the market through realized selling, the odds of a bottom increase.
The catch: circulating supply was smaller in prior cycles
The report does not treat this as a magic number. It flags a counterweight that matters for interpreting the metric.
It notes that circulating supply was materially lower in both earlier periods referenced. It pegs circulating supply at roughly 17.4 million in the late 2018 window and 19.2 million toward the end of 2022.
Why that matters. The report points to lower supply as a reason “Supply in Loss might edge slightly higher this time,” because the base of circulating coins is larger now.
It also references 2015 as a cautionary example. In that period, the report says the metric didn’t reach the 10 million threshold before a bullish reversal. So the threshold can line up with bottoms, but it does not function like a strict trigger.
Price context, plus what you can and can’t conclude
NewsBTC frames near-term price action as stabilizing. It says Bitcoin appears to have found an “anchor” around $60,000 after days of steep decline.
In the same snapshot, the report states that as of the time of writing BTC trades around $62,746, up 2.5% over the prior 24 hours.
Here is the practical implication for readers. This on-chain threshold is about who is underwater, not about whether bearish catalysts are gone. A metric can signal reduced willingness to realize losses, while macro conditions, liquidity, and broader risk sentiment still drive volatility.
| Item | What the report cites | Source in the text |
|---|---|---|
| BTC in loss | 10.46 million BTC underwater | Glassnode data via Ali Martinez |
| Threshold for prior bottoms | 10 million BTC held at a loss | Illustrated in the report’s historical comparison |
| Prior circulating supply estimates | 17.4M (late 2018) and 19.2M (end of 2022) | Included in the report |
| BTC price at writing | ~$62,746 | NewsBTC report |
| 24h move | +2.5% | NewsBTC report |
Bottom-line risk framing
Even if the “Supply in Loss” pattern lines up with past cycle bottoms, the report itself points to why this time could differ. The circulating supply base is higher now than in the prior threshold-crossing windows.
So treat the signal as a historical context clue, not a guarantee. Bitcoin’s market can still test lower levels even after fear metrics look exhausted, especially if realized selling reappears or liquidity tightens.