Bitcoin is trading near $61,538, holding a support level around $61,500 that market participants have flagged as significant. The level now faces a test Thursday when the U.S. releases its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a closely watched inflation metric the Federal Reserve uses to guide rate decisions.
Core PCE strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a steadier read on underlying inflation trends. A hotter-than-expected print could signal the Fed remains in no rush to cut rates, pressuring risk assets including crypto. A cooler number might ease rate-cut bets and provide relief to asset prices more broadly.
Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to macro surprises in recent months, often trading on Fed expectations rather than on-chain fundamentals alone. The $61,500 level has emerged as a floor in current price action. A break below would open room to test lower support tiers; a hold could reinforce the range Bitcoin has occupied.
The inflation data is one of several economic prints before the end of June. Markets have already priced in a range of Fed scenarios, but actual data that diverges from expectations tends to trigger sharp moves. Bitcoin, as a risk-on asset, typically falls when real rates rise or when growth concerns tighten liquidity.
Thursday's report carries extra weight because it feeds directly into Fed communications. A pattern of sticky inflation could harden the case for maintaining higher rates longer, while softer data might accelerate pricing in of cuts later this year. Crypto traders watching the macro picture should keep an eye on how the broader stock and bond markets react first, as Bitcoin often follows equities' cue in response to Fed-adjacent data.