Bitcoin is back in a historically watched zone. In NewsBTC, market observers argue the current setup rhymes with 2022, when BTC first tagged the 200-week Simple Moving Average and then worked through a bear-market bottom pattern.
The 200-week SMA is the headline, not the hype
NewsBTC reports that Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $64,000 area as support after falling 15% over four days. It traded in a range of $64,000 to $82,000 after the early-February crash, then pushed down toward the lower boundary for the first time in months.
The key technical point in the NewsBTC piece is what Rekt Capital highlighted. For the first time in this bear cycle, BTC “tagged” the 200-week SMA. According to the post, deviation below that SMA is “historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.”
Rekt Capital ties this to June 2022. NewsBTC says BTC reached the 200-week SMA during the 2022 bear correction, then quickly lost it as support on the weekly timeframe. It later revisited the SMA, traded sideways, and continued down toward its late-2022 bear market bottom.
So the claim is not that history guarantees outcomes. It’s that the mechanics resemble a known pathway. And NewsBTC frames the current tagging of the SMA as the market’s latest checkpoint in that sequence.
Why “$60,000 support” is getting weaker
The NewsBTC report also focuses on how Bitcoin’s strength around $60,000 has changed over time. Rekt Capital points to a pattern where rallies from the $60,000 region have weakened progressively since 2024.
NewsBTC cites that the mid-2024 rally surged 113% from $60,000. But during the February 2026 retest, the move produced only 38%. BTC has bounced about 4% so far, and the analyst argues the rebound from here is likely to be weaker. In his words as carried by NewsBTC, the “$60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time.”
Rekt Capital further describes bear-market structure. NewsBTC says bear markets often form multi-month price clusters, then print new “Macro Lower Highs,” before distributing from those clusters toward new lows. The report says he expects 1-2 such clusters remain, with the bear market bottom framed as the final cluster.
MVRV bands point to a wider “vulnerable” range
The second analyst cited in NewsBTC is Ali Martinez. He tells readers that the recent breakdown from $72,000 support leaves Bitcoin “in a vulnerable position.”
NewsBTC links Martinez’s view to MVRV Pricing Bands and says the model opens the door for a 25% to 30% correction. The report adds that Martinez previously noted Bitcoin has “consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade.”
consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade.
In this framework, NewsBTC says the next major support area sits between $54,000 and $50,000. That zone corresponds to the 1.0 pricing band in Martinez’s setup.
The concrete levels watchers are tracking
Here are the levels and signals mentioned in the NewsBTC report, with the analysts’ rationale attached.
| Item | Level(s) | What the cited analyst says it means |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin’s four-month low | $61,383 | Reached Wednesday night as BTC tested the lower end of the $64k-$82k range (NewsBTC) |
| Reclaim attempt | $64,000 | NewsBTC frames this as an attempted support return after a 15% four-day fall |
| Long-term moving average | 200-week SMA | Rekt Capital says deviation below it has historically helped build a bear-market bottom formation (NewsBTC) |
| “Support” weakening zone | $60,000 | Rekt Capital argues rallies from this area have weakened since 2024 and warns it will be lost over time (NewsBTC) |
| Correction framework via MVRV | 25%-30% | Ali Martinez says BTC’s breakdown from $72,000 support leaves it vulnerable, with that magnitude correction in play (NewsBTC) |
| Next major support band | $54,000 to $50,000 | NewsBTC says this matches the 1.0 MVRV pricing band in Martinez’s framing |
The risk angle here is timing, not certainty
The NewsBTC piece leans heavily on the idea that BTC is repeating a 2022-style sequence. Both Rekt Capital and Ali Martinez point to long-term structures, not day-to-day noise. But structure also means time. If the 200-week SMA tagging is the start of a bottom-building process, the “next move” can still unfold in steps.
For readers, the actionable part is watching the same thresholds the analysts are watching: whether BTC can hold the $64,000 reclaim attempt, whether support around $60,000 continues to deteriorate, and whether the MVRV-based risk range starts to matter in realized price behavior.
the desk sees a familiar bearish checklist returning, with specific long-horizon references doing the heavy lifting.