Bitcoin bounced Monday and climbed back above the $63,000 area. The quick follow-up question is now louder. Was the drop to roughly $59,000 last Friday actually the bottom, or just another leg in a longer drawdown?
On X, analyst Ali Martinez says the move down looks less like an endless bleed and more like a “cleansing function” that sets up a market bottom. His framing is technical, but he leans hard on macro plumbing and who holds the supply.
Why Martinez thinks the sell-off “cleansed” leverage
Martinez’s core claim is that BTC’s decline reached the market’s “lowest level since 2024.” In his view, that flush shook out “overleveraged premiums” across the board.
He argues those bottoms often need leverage stress to be removed first. That means late or speculative positions get forced to unwind, which can reduce the kind of reflex selling that keeps price pinned down.
The holders angle. Then the exchange math
Martinez also points to long-term holders distributing coins during the downswing. He claims long-term investors sold more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin, which temporarily raised exchange reserves.
More coins sitting closer to trading venues can matter in drawdowns. Martinez links that to an observed flow onto exchanges. He cites data that over 54,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms over the past two weeks, adding to the selling dynamic.
This is where his argument becomes less about “price levels look scary” and more about market microstructure. Higher exchange reserves can turn spot selling pressure into a headwind for rebounds.
The loss metric he watches for bottom timing
Even with Monday’s rebound, Martinez emphasizes what happened during the drop. He highlights a threshold based on “supply-in-loss.”
He says more than 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss, and he treats that as the key line to watch. Martinez claims that historically, when this “supply-in-loss” metric crosses the extreme 10 million BTC level, it has helped time macro bottoms with notable accuracy.
Where his model points next
After the leverage-and-loss framing, Martinez brings in MVRV Pricing Bands. He describes them as “geometric targets” for where Bitcoin accumulation windows mature.
In his post, the most reliable accumulation periods historically occur when Bitcoin settles within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands. He says those bands line up with two target areas:
- Approximately $53,900
- Approximately $43,150
So if Martinez is right that a bottom is approaching or forming now, his model suggests the market could gravitate toward those zones as consolidation and accumulation progress. That is a scenario, not a guarantee. An “accumulation window” can still include more volatility and more failed attempts before anything sticks.
What to track if you’re using his framework
Martinez’s note is built on several specific indicators. If you want to sanity-check the thesis, the recurring inputs are simple: loss concentration, exchange inflows, and the MVRV band range.
| Item Martinez cites | What it implies in his view | Source in this story |
|---|---|---|
| BTC rebound back above $63,000 after Friday’s drop near $59,000 | Revives “bottom” debate | NewsBTC summary of Martinez note |
| Long-term holders distributed over $3.25 billion in spot BTC during the downswing | Raises exchange reserves and potential selling pressure | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
| Over 54,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms in two weeks | Adds to selling dynamic | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
| More than 10.46 million BTC held at a loss | Loss-supply extreme near 10M threshold | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
| “Supply-in-loss” crossing 10M historically times macro bottoms | Bottom timing signal | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
| MVRV band accumulation zone at 1.0 to 0.8 | Accumulation window tends to mature there | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
| Target areas near $53,900 and $43,150 | Possible gravitation zones if bottom forms | Martinez note via NewsBTC |
For now, Monday’s rebound only answers one question. It confirms buyers showed up. It does not confirm the bottom is in.
Martinez’s argument leans on the idea that leverage stress has already been flushed and that exchange reserves and loss concentration are now positioned to let a macro cycle begin. Readers should treat that as a model to test, not a verdict on what BTC “should” do next.