Bitcoin’s weekend crash pulled the $60,000 level back into focus. But crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader argues the market may be circling a trap, not a bargain.
His case leans on a Wyckoff accumulation comparison. In his view, the current Bitcoin setup still sits before the “spring” phase. That matters because Wyckoff models treat bounces before the spring as potential momentum loss, not the start of a clean markup.
Wyckoff replay: why Merlijn says the bounce can be expensive
Merlijn frames his analysis around Bitcoin’s 2022 bottoming structure. In that cycle, Bitcoin formed a “spring” around $15,500, then recovered into the $23,000 region where buyers rushed in, convinced the worst was over.
The follow-through wasn’t a straight line up. Price action printed a secondary wave of selling that punished late buyers before the genuine markup phase began.
Merlijn’s claim is that the 2026 structure is developing in a similar rhythm. He says Bitcoin currently trades at a stage resembling where the market previously showed strength, then lost momentum, and later dropped into the spring phase.
His conclusion is blunt. Buying a bounce from the current region could mean stepping into the same kind of trap that caught investors before the real markup.
The $60,000 level may be “important” for the wrong reason
Part of Merlijn’s skepticism targets the emotional magnet of $60,000.
He notes that Bitcoin fell below $60,000 during the recent selloff. He also calls $60,000 an important support because it sits close to the 200-week moving average.
Support levels can act like magnets for traders. They also can become bait if the broader structure says “not yet.” In Merlijn’s framing, the technical importance of $60,000 does not automatically mean the accumulation window has opened.
The phases and the window Merlijn would stage entries in
Merlijn organizes the Wyckoff setup into five phases.
Phase A. A selling climax that stops the downtrend. Phase B. Building the “cause” as accumulation occurs within the range. Phase C. The spring, a final shakeout below support. Phase D. Markup within the range with a last point of support and a sign of strength. Phase E. Breakout and the start of the uptrend.
In Merlijn’s projection, Bitcoin is inside that structure with the Spring phase still ahead. He points to a move from spring into roughly $50,000, then a bounce rally into the $65,000 to $70,000 zone.
He warns that such a bounce could lure bulls into buying what looks like a recovery, echoing the late-buyer trap he says showed up in prior cycles.
Instead, Merlijn places a dollar-cost averaging zone between $48,000 and $59,000. He suggests that is where “better long-term entries” might appear, provided the market actually follows the structure.
Where Bitcoin trades right now
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,891.
Merlijn’s thesis is not a guarantee of outcomes. It is a chart-driven scenario built from a historical pattern comparison, where timing and phase alignment matter as much as direction.
| Item | Merlijn The Trader’s claim (per NewsBTC) |
|---|---|
| Key level being watched | $60,000 as support near the 200-week moving average |
| Model used | Wyckoff accumulation, referencing Bitcoin’s 2022 structure |
| Structure stage focus | Spring phase still ahead in 2026 |
| Proposed spring target (scenario) | A move to about $50,000 |
| Proposed bounce range (scenario) | $65,000 to $70,000 |
| DCA staging zone | $48,000 to $59,000 |
| Bitcoin price at write time | $62,891 |
If you treat his analysis as a timing map, the practical takeaway is patience. If you treat it as a trading signal, you’re betting on the phase sequence holding up. Either way, the $60,000 conversation may be less about “instant entry” and more about waiting for the chart to admit where it actually is in the cycle.