Bitcoin’s June selloff did not behave like a routine dip. In the first five days, the asset racked up more than $1.28 billion in long liquidations as prices pushed toward the $60,000 area, according to Axel Adler Jr., who detailed the liquidation surge in an X post on June 6.
Adler Jr. frames the move as part of a broader risk-off unwind across US markets, not a Bitcoin-only event. In his reading, the spark was the release of stronger-than-expected US labor data and the market’s rapid repricing of how restrictive US monetary policy might get.
Jobs report shifts rates expectations, markets follow
Adler Jr. said the turmoil began after the US labor market data that landed above expectations. He cited a report that the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, versus forecasts of 88,000.
Employment gains are usually treated as a positive signal. This time, Adler Jr. argued the reaction flipped because inflation pressures stayed elevated and energy prices remained relatively high. In that context, the same jobs strength translated into a higher chance the Federal Reserve would stay restrictive.
The rate expectations moved accordingly. Adler Jr. said expectations for future rate hikes rose from 40% to 57%. That repricing hit not just crypto but multiple major asset classes in the same trading window. He reported that on June 5, about $2.5 trillion was erased from major financial markets, including the S&P 500 at $1.14 trillion, Nasdaq at $1.11 trillion, gold at $1 trillion, silver at $280 billion, and Bitcoin at $80 billion.
Bitcoin traders get the point. When macro shifts in the US change the odds on rates quickly, liquidity can disappear everywhere at once.
Leverage unwind kept longs under pressure
Macro may explain the initial risk-off push, but Adler Jr. said the second layer was positioning and leverage. He pointed to funding rates that stayed positive throughout the decline. Positive funding rates mean traders kept paying premiums to hold long positions even as price fell.
Adler Jr. argued that pattern often lines up with excessive bullish positioning. The problem is mechanical. When price continues to drop, that kind of long-heavy structure increases the odds of forced liquidations. That is exactly what showed up in the June liquidation figures he highlighted.
Open interest added another warning sign. Adler Jr. said Bitcoin open interest stayed elevated, with the 30-day open interest change peaking at 14.1% on June 3 and then easing to 8.4% by June 6. His interpretation is that leverage built up rapidly during the decline, then started to ease as positions got forced out.
Net result. Even after the initial shock, the market still had to work through overleveraged longs.
ETFs bleed demand as exchange balances rise
Adler Jr. also pointed to two more channels that can worsen a selloff.
First, US spot Bitcoin ETFs. He reported weekly net outflows of about $1.40 billion. The desk consequence is straightforward. ETF outflows reduce a steady demand source, so selling pressure has fewer offsets.
Second, exchange inflows. Adler Jr. said the seven-day exchange netflow average climbed to 10,200 BTC on June 2, before retracing to around 6,200 BTC by June 6. Historically, he noted, higher exchange balances are often associated with more sell-side activity.
The combined picture from Adler Jr. is simple and uncomfortable for bulls. Less demand from ETFs. More coins trending toward exchanges. And long positions that have been paying to stay exposed.
Key June stress points cited by Adler Jr.
| Metric | What Adler Jr. reported | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Long liquidations (first 5 days) | $1.28B+ | Forced selling removes leverage fast. |
| Macro trigger | Jobs data beat forecasts (172K vs 88K) | Repriced odds for restrictive Fed policy. |
| Rate hike expectations | 40% to 57% | Tighter expectations can tighten risk appetite. |
| Market-wide losses (June 5) | ~$2.5T across major assets, incl. BTC $80B | Signals risk-off spillover. |
| Funding rates | Stayed positive during decline | Longs remained crowded. |
| ETF flows | ~$1.40B weekly net outflows | Reduced spot demand at the margin. |
| Exchange netflow avg | 10,200 BTC (Jun 2), ~6,200 BTC (Jun 6) | More inflow often aligns with more selling. |
$60,000 is the line the market must hold
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $61,593, up 1.95% on the day, according to the same account. But Adler Jr. said the critical level is still $60,000, described as the current cycle low.
He also warned that a clean technical break below that region could turn into another cascade. To avoid that, he said it’s important for several market segments to cool down before any move turns into a downside break. His list includes ETF outflows, exchange inflows, and the futures market.
That framing matters because it treats price as the final layer. The real question is whether the demand and positioning mechanics have stabilized. If they have not, the market can fall quickly even when spot bounces look convincing for a day or two.