Bitcoin just printed its ugliest weekly candle in years. In the week of June 5, 2026, BTC closed down by almost 20%, the steepest single-week percentage decline since the collapse of FTX in November 2022, according to NewsBTC.
That resemblance is exactly why the market is now asking the same question people always ask after a cascade. Is this the bottom already in, like it looked during the prior cycle’s capitulation?
The week that broke the record since 2022
NewsBTC says Bitcoin opened the week around $73,760, briefly pushed up to about $74,092, then fell to roughly $59,130. Using that same TradingView-reported range, the publication calculates a drop of about 19.5% from the weekly open to the low and 20.1% from the high to the low.
NewsBTC also frames the move against the 2022 comparison point. During the FTX crash, BTC’s roughly 22% one-week fall landed close to the final bear-market bottom.
But NewsBTC cautions that the current structure is not a carbon copy. This drawdown is happening after Bitcoin has already given up a large chunk of value from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. At the time of writing, NewsBTC reports BTC trading around $62,150, or about 50.7% below that peak.
So yes, the “red candle” is familiar. The timing relative to earlier losses is not.
Why “bottom already in” is a harder call now
NewsBTC argues the present setup is more complicated because Bitcoin is reacting to a blend of pressures, not one clean capitulation event.
The publication points to three drivers:
- institutional selling pressure
- ETF weakness
- fading confidence after a failed recovery attempt above $82,000
That matters because the FTX-era drop, per NewsBTC, came after months of selling pressure and then ended up close to the bear-market bottom. In the current case, NewsBTC suggests there’s no single “end” point that lines up as neatly with the chart.
The result is a split interpretation. Some analysts may still anchor on a prolonged bear market. NewsBTC mentions forecasts that could stretch into at least Q4 2026.
A valuation model says “extreme, but not destiny”
NewsBTC adds a second angle: valuation. Crypto analyst Darkfost is cited saying Bitcoin has now fallen below the 4% quantile on the Bitcoin Porkopolis Power Law Quantile Regression model. NewsBTC reports Darkfost’s chart puts the quantile oscillator around 3.9%.
The publication characterizes that as a statistically rare zone. It says Bitcoin trades there in less than 4% of its historical price action relative to its long-term growth curve.
Darkfost also frames the model as potentially offering a reversal signal. NewsBTC writes that prior instances where the quantile oscillator reached this level, visible in 2015, 2018/2019, and the 2022 bottom, were followed by multi-year recoveries.
Still, NewsBTC makes the practical point that valuation extremes do not force timing. Bitcoin can remain undervalued longer than traders expect, especially if momentum is weak and forced selling persists.
Key numbers from the NewsBTC write-up
| Metric | Figure | Source in text |
|---|---|---|
| Week of June 5 decline | ~20% | NewsBTC |
| Weekly open | ~$73,760 | TradingView via NewsBTC |
| Brief high | ~$74,092 | TradingView via NewsBTC |
| Weekly low | ~ $59,130 | TradingView via NewsBTC |
| Weekly drop open to low | ~19.5% | NewsBTC calculation |
| Weekly drop high to low | ~20.1% | NewsBTC calculation |
| BTC at time of writing | ~$62,150 | NewsBTC |
| Distance from Oct 2025 ATH | ~50.7% below | NewsBTC |
| Power Law quantile reading | ~3.9% | Darkfost via NewsBTC |
What to watch next, if you’re trying to test the “bottom” thesis
NewsBTC isn’t arguing that the bottom is definitely in. It is pointing out why the “final-washout zone” narrative is tempting, while also showing the usual exit-ramp problems.
If the FTX-era comparison is the anchor, the chart analogy may matter. If the ETF weakness and institutional selling pressure are the anchor, timing could stay ugly.
The most defensible takeaway from NewsBTC’s filing-first logic is simple. An extreme weekly decline and an extreme valuation quantile can both be true at once. They just don’t settle the question of when the next leg begins.