Bitwise’s Dragosch warns bitcoin could drop another 20%, with “max pain” near $48,000

Bitwise analyst Eric Dragosch says bitcoin still faces room for downside, even after recent volatility.

In a “max pain” framing, Dragosch points to the long-term holder cost basis at $48,000. He characterizes that level as the scenario where losses would be most punishing for long-term holders, and he estimates bitcoin could see up to an additional 20% decline from there.

Why “max pain” is about holder stress, not headlines

“Max pain” is not a forecast of what the market must do next. It’s a stress-test lens based on where a particular cohort’s cost basis sits.

Dragosch’s point focuses on long-term holders. If price moves below a cohort’s average cost basis, the pain is mechanical. It shows up as unrealized losses, which can raise the odds of supply returning to the market if holders decide to cut risk.

The key constraint is that the analysis depends on the chosen cost-basis metric. If the market shifts the behavior of long-term holders, or if other buyers absorb supply, the “max pain” scenario may not land as described.

The $48,000 anchor and the implied drawdown

The specific number in Dragosch’s note is the long-term holder cost basis at $48,000. From that anchor, he sees up to 20% more downside.

That puts the message plainly. Dragosch is not arguing bitcoin can’t bounce. He’s arguing that, on his “max pain” setup, downside risk remains material for holders whose cost basis sits around that long-term figure.

What ETF readers should watch

This matters to ETF-linked market participants because the broader tape often reacts quickly when downside narratives gain traction.

But the desk still has to flag the obvious risk: this is a scenario analysis anchored to cost basis. It doesn’t come with timing. It also doesn’t override price drivers outside the framework, like ETF flows, broader macro conditions, or changes in how holders behave.

In other words, treat “max pain” as a risk map, not a timetable. If holders don’t react the way the model assumes, the pathway can diverge.

The bottom line of Dragosch’s warning

Bitwise’s Dragosch frames $48,000 as a “max pain” long-term holder cost-basis scenario and says bitcoin could drop as much as another 20% further under that setup. That is a downside-risk claim, not a guarantee.