Final leg of the four-year cycle, with a retest caveat
Veteran analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has moved into the final stage of its current four-year cycle. He also warns the market may still require another downturn before a durable cycle bottom is in place.
In his June 4 “4-Year Journey” update, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of February lows as routine historical behavior rather than a signal the cycle has already ended. He pointed to a pattern he expects in most cycles, saying a cycle rarely ends very early and that “there’s always a retest.” He added that there’s generally at least one lower low, and sometimes a second lower low.
Loukas treated Bitcoin’s October peak and subsequent breakdown below its 10-month moving average as confirmation that the prior cycle advance had ended. From there, he described a drop into February followed by a relief rally. Bulls, in his view, expected a quick run back toward prior highs, but that rebound stalled near the $83,000 area, roughly around the $85,000 level he had expected. Bitcoin then reversed and fell about 25% back toward February’s lows.
Why $53,000 is the headline level, not the “bottom is in” button
Loukas emphasized that his model portfolio started buying, but he stopped short of calling the bottom confirmed. His first buy action came after 3.5 years, when the portfolio added 10 BTC at the $65,000 level. That brought allocation to about 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash.
He described this as reaccumulation at more favorable long-term levels rather than a prediction that the cycle low is already set.
The key level now, per Loukas, is $53,000. If Bitcoin reaches that area, he said the model portfolio would use the remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation.
Loukas connected the $53,000 level to the structure of his broader four-year cycle model, saying it “roughly corresponds to the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle,” and quoted his strategy as “all cash that remains to buy the remaining Bitcoin and get back to a 100% allocation” at $53,000.
roughly corresponds to the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle,
He also argued the level is severe-looking but not extreme in Bitcoin terms. From the current area, he characterized further downside as around another 15%, while Bitcoin had already dropped roughly $20,000 in the prior two to three weeks.
Loukas compared current drawdowns to prior bear markets. He cited a 77% peak-to-trough decline in the 2021–2022 cycle versus a roughly 51% to 52% drawdown in the current stretch.
Cycle-level math Loukas cited
| Item | Loukas framing from the update |
|---|---|
| Current price at press time | BTC traded at $62,247 |
| Portfolio buy | Added 10 BTC at $65,000 |
| Current allocation after buy | ~58% Bitcoin, 41% cash |
| If BTC hits | $53,000 would trigger use of remaining cash to reach 100% allocation |
| Expected move from current area | Another ~15% lower, per his model discussion |
| Volatility context | 2021–2022: ~77% decline. Current: ~51% to 52% drawdown |
| Example drawdown range he referenced | A 65% to 70% drawdown “shouldn’t become a surprise,” per his language |
| Probability of shorter low | ~25% for a potential earlier “double bottom” scenario |
“Final cycle window” is open, but October to November still fits
Loukas said the calendar timing is tightening. He placed Bitcoin at month 43 of the cycle, describing it as the broad zone where four-year lows typically emerge around a 47 to 48 month average.
He said the “window has been hit” and that the four-year cycle is getting close to an end. Still, he reiterated that this is not different from prior cycles, in which the process can include additional retests and lower lows.
For timing, he allowed a bullish path where a shorter cycle low forms via a double bottom, followed by a base into late summer and a later move above the May highs. He assigned that outcome a relatively low probability of around 25%.
His base case is more conventional in his framework. He said the cycle low should form closer to the traditional window around October or November, with December also possible.
Near-term behavior: expect bounces, but not a quick reclaim
Loukas also addressed the next moves traders usually latch onto during selloffs. He said Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce, with a potential target toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000 before resuming lower.
He added a specific constraint: Bitcoin should not trade back above the May high near $83,000 to $85,000 over the next several months unless a new cycle has already begun.
In other words, his update gives room for a reflex rally, but he is skeptical of quick validation above the prior range.
The practical takeaway from Loukas’ framework is that the market can still move lower even if the cycle is “in the final stage.” His $53,000 level is the point where he wants to deploy remaining cash, but his own language makes clear he is not treating it as proof that the bottom is already confirmed.