CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is pushing a friendlier read on Bitcoin’s current distribution phase. In a series of X posts summarized by NewsBTC, he argues the market is not cracking under structural weakness. It’s transferring ownership.
His core claim is simple. Selling from “Bitcoin OGs” and long-time miners may be less about running out of sellers and more about passing supply to US traditional financial institutions, ETF buyers, and newer long-term holders. Ki frames the question as distribution versus absorption. How much supply is being sold matters. Who ends up buying it matters more.
A shift in who holds Bitcoin
Ki’s thesis centers on Bitcoin’s ownership base. In the NewsBTC recap of his posts, he says the long-term market setup depends on the capital backing behind the holders. If the new owners are better positioned to pull liquidity into the asset over time, then a transition can support another upward cycle.
Ki explicitly pushes back on the notion that Bitcoin’s future depends on “all the liquidity coming in” only during earlier phases. “I disagree with the claim that Bitcoin won’t do well anymore once the shift is complete and there’s no more liquidity coming in,” NewsBTC quotes from Ki.
That’s a notable counter to the way many traders interpret distribution. Yes, Bitcoin has faced intense sell pressure. But NewsBTC reports Ki pointing to large institutional buyers absorbing supply even as older cohorts distribute.
Numbers Ki uses: ETF and Strategy absorption vs flat price
Ki’s bearish-to-neutral logic looks at absorption without payoff. NewsBTC lays out several figures he cited:
- Strategy bought 711,206 BTC since January 2023 and sold only 32 BTC, a net removal of 711,174 BTC from circulation
- ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC since March 2024, and Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC in that span
- Together, NewsBTC reports Ki’s math as 1,240,808 BTC absorbed while price returned to roughly the same level
- For scale, Ki noted exchange reserves sit around 2.7 million BTC and Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to hold around 1 million BTC
That last comparison is meant to show magnitude. If absorption is large while price stalls near prior levels, Ki’s implication is that supply did not turn into sustained upward momentum yet. It may have turned into a different kind of holder structure.
Here’s the compact fact table from the NewsBTC recap.
| Metric (as cited by Ki, per NewsBTC) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Strategy net BTC since Jan 2023 | +711,174 BTC |
| ETFs absorbed BTC since Mar 2024 | +509,102 BTC |
| Strategy BTC bought since Mar 2024 | +650,706 BTC |
| Total absorbed in that window (Ki math) | +1,240,808 BTC |
| BTC exchange reserves (Ki) | ~2.7M BTC |
| Satoshi estimated holdings (Ki) | ~1M BTC |
The realized-cap cohort shift
Ki also argues the “who” is changing inside Bitcoin’s realized-cap structure. NewsBTC reports he claims Bitcoin is around the same price as two years ago, but holder composition looks materially different.
In Ki’s reading, the 6-month-to-2-year cohort now makes up 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago. He treats that as a maturation process: short-term holders from this cycle are evolving into long-term holders.
NewsBTC notes Ki compared that to the previous cycle, where bear-market stabilization came after a similar cohort reached 68% of realized cap.
That’s why his thesis stays conditional rather than celebratory. Even if new long-term holders are forming, demand still has to be deep enough to offset distribution.
The demand side still looks shaky
Ki’s framing isn’t one-sided. NewsBTC also includes a counterpoint he reposted from Julio Moreno: overall Bitcoin demand, including speculative and spot demand, is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC.
Moreno’s argument, as presented by NewsBTC, ties the correction to Bitcoin demand conditions rather than broader macro like equities or oil. NewsBTC adds that Ki’s posts therefore produce a split picture. Heavy sell pressure continues while institutional absorption remains meaningful.
The cultural tradeoff also shows up in Ki’s own words, per NewsBTC. He says traditional financial institutions could bring an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs. But he regrets the dilution of “cypherpunk values.”
What it means for the market debate
NewsBTC concludes the practical debate as a question of offset. Can growing Wall Street ownership compensate for the supply leaving older holders and miners?
Ki’s stance, according to NewsBTC, remains constructive but dependent on the transfer becoming a source of future liquidity rather than a ceiling on upside. At press time, BTC traded at $62,696, per the same report.
So the story isn’t “no downside.” It’s “different owners, different demand mechanics.” Ki’s bet is that the supply being sold is finding buyers who can keep buying later, not just during the distribution window.