Franklin Templeton is keeping its Bitcoin outlook for 2026 bullish. In an interview with Milk Road on April 30, Christopher Jensen, director of Digital Asset Research at Franklin Templeton Digital Assets, said the firm’s base case is for BTC to return above $100,000 in 2026.
Jensen framed the route back as conditional. He described a path for Bitcoin to reclaim its 200-day Moving Average (MA) before it rallies back above $100,000. He also dismissed the most aggressive projections, saying Franklin Templeton is not among those predicting $1 million per BTC in 12 months. Even in the bullish base case, Jensen warned that price action could look messy, with high volatility and choppy consolidations.
The bullish thesis does not ignore the bigger backdrop. A Franklin Templeton representative told Milk Road that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain trapped in a macro bear market. The source text adds that BTC has been forming lower lows and lower highs since its all-time high near $126,198 about seven months prior.
Franklin Templeton’s reasons for staying constructive center on demand and regulation. Jensen attributed part of the setup to what he called a healthy correction driven by deleveraging that accelerated during the October 11, 2025, crypto crash. He also cited proven institutional demand, especially in the United States, and pointed to “clear regulations.” The source text ties that to the proposed U.S. Clarity Act, described as federal regulation aimed at legalizing crypto assets, with the expectation it could pass before the end of the year.
The same source, as summarized by Finbold, adds a potential catalyst beyond crypto itself. If regulation improves, it says capital rotation from gold and stocks could accelerate the Bitcoin bullish thesis. The message is straightforward, though the risk is not. Franklin Templeton is talking about an asset path with uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.