Bitcoin’s long-term security model is back in focus after Glassnode data highlighted a theoretical quantum threat.
Glassnode’s analysis, as summarized by crypto trader Evans on X, estimates that roughly 6.04 million BTC. That is nearly 30% of the total BTC supply. The figure is framed as potential future exposure, contingent on quantum computing advancing enough to break current cryptographic protections.
The mechanics are the key point. Glassnode’s report, as described in NewsBTC’s coverage, ties the risk to public keys being exposed on-chain. In other words, the worry is not that today’s Bitcoin is breakable, but that some coins have already had more of their cryptographic “surface area” revealed than others.
Why it matters
If an attacker can run quantum capabilities that undermine today’s cryptography, previously exposed public keys could matter far more than they do in a non-quantum world.
NewsBTC’s write-up says about 4.12 million BTC of the at-risk amount is specifically linked to address reuse and outdated custody methods. The implication is blunt. Reuse and older operational practices increase how often public keys get needlessly exposed.
The same coverage adds a second concentration risk. Centralized exchanges collectively hold more than 1.6 million BTC in potentially exposed addresses. That does not label any specific exchange as careless. But it does place a large chunk of exposure into a small set of custodial entities.
Market impact
The quantum risk discussion arrives while Bitcoin’s trading engine is running quiet.
NewsBTC reports that Bitcoin spot trading volumes have collapsed by about 81% since October 2025. It cites a CryptoQuant Verified Author known as Darkfost, who said the closest similarly low participation level occurred in July 2023.
The comparison is anchored in the same NewsBTC account. Darkfost flagged that volumes are far lower than prior activity. NewsBTC also notes exchange dominance in the current volume data rather than a fully broad-based market.
A few figures from NewsBTC’s coverage give that context. Binance is described as having $36.4 billion in trading volume, and $198.6 billion in October 2025. Gate.io’s volumes are reported down 79.6%. Bybit is down 66%.
NewsBTC links the volume slump to macro conditions. It cites persistently rising inflationary pressures and prolonged US-Iran tensions pushing investors toward commodities and traditional equity indices instead of crypto.
Darkfost’s read, as relayed by NewsBTC, offers a more constructive angle. Weak spot volume can signal that the selling impulse behind a retracement is losing momentum. The article says that historically, weak spot volume periods often line up with later stages of market corrections, when selling pressure starts to exhaust and speculative excess gets flushed.
What to watch next
Quantum risk is theoretical until it is not. So the practical question becomes whether Glassnode’s “potentially exposed” classifications change over time and whether custodians reduce exposed key patterns.
NewsBTC’s report points to address reuse, outdated custody practices, and centralized exchange holdings as the main buckets driving the exposure estimate. Watch for additional on-chain breakdowns that refine which addresses or cohorts carry the most exposed public-key history.
Also watch spot volume. If Darkfost’s framing holds, a continued low-activity regime could precede a shift in volatility. But NewsBTC’s own macro explanation means volume could also stay depressed if risk appetite remains constrained.
Compact fact table
| Claim in NewsBTC | Figure | Source framing |
|---|---|---|
| Potential quantum-exposed BTC supply | ~6.04M BTC | Glassnode analysis relayed via Evans on X |
| Share of total BTC supply | ~30% | Same estimate |
| Exposure tied to address reuse and outdated custody | ~4.12M BTC | Same NewsBTC coverage of Glassnode findings |
| Exposure held in potentially exposed addresses at centralized exchanges | >1.6M BTC | Same NewsBTC coverage |
| Spot trading volume decline since Oct 2025 | ~81% | NewsBTC citing Darkfost |
| Low participation comparator | July 2023 | Darkfost, per NewsBTC |
| Binance volume in current snapshot | $36.4B | NewsBTC-reported volume |
| Binance volume in Oct 2025 | $198.6B | NewsBTC-reported volume |
| Gate.io volume drop | ~79.6% | NewsBTC-reported |
| Bybit volume drop | ~66% | NewsBTC-reported |