Bitcoin’s next “real” leg up may depend less on headlines and more on where past buyers are sitting.
In a post shared on X, Glassnode lead research analyst CryptoVizArt used the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) to map Bitcoin supply by the prices holders paid across the asset’s history. The key point from the heatmap is concentration. CryptoVizArt highlighted a “dense supply cluster in the $80k–$126k range,” tied to coins still held by buyers near prior cycle highs.
The $80k–$126k supply wall problem
CBD is an on-chain indicator that buckets BTC by purchase levels, effectively showing where break-even points for groups of holders sit. In CryptoVizArt’s chart, regions above $80,000 include what the post describes as an “extreme amount” of supply, approaching roughly 495,000 BTC. These zones run up toward the top levels from the 2025 bull market.
CryptoVizArt also pointed out that the very highest band near $126,000 used to be more crowded. After the downturn, some of that supply “has changed hands at lower levels,” which weakened the clusters. Even so, the $80k+ areas still look dominant versus supply below $80,000.
That matters because many of these holders are currently underwater. The NewsBTC write-up of Glassnode’s post makes the behavioral link explicit. Underwater investors can act as an impediment to rallies because they may be more likely to sell near break-even, turning a potential recovery into an exit opportunity.
Why May’s recovery capped out
The piece ties the same mechanism to May. It suggests that the supply concentration above $80,000 could help explain why the recovery rally in May didn’t extend into something sustained. The desk framing here is straightforward. If there’s a dense cluster of sellers around break-even, price can struggle to build momentum.
In that view, the market doesn’t need “good vibes.” It needs enough churn to reduce the size and sharpness of those cost-basis bands.
What Glassnode says would fix it
CryptoVizArt’s prescription is gradual, not instantaneous. For a sustained recovery, the supply above these levels needs to “gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels.” As that happens, the post argues, the overhang pressure eases, and demand can form with more conviction.
gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels.
Glassnode also frames the timelines as slow by nature. CryptoVizArt said the transition can take time and may arrive through either “deeper correction” or “bear market continuation.” The point is not that those scenarios are pleasant. It’s that, according to the CBD logic, they may be the mechanisms that push older holders to sell and re-price the supply into lower cost tiers.
The near-term uncertainty is whether the top buyers capitulate. The article leaves that as an open question, noting it “remains to be seen” how the CBD will develop next, especially around whether those higher cost-basis holders finally sell into new demand.
Where price sits while this plays out
The NewsBTC summary says Bitcoin dropped to about $59,000 last week, then opened Monday higher. It reports BTC floating around $63,200 at the time of writing.
| Metric | Value mentioned in the source | Source framing |
|---|---|---|
| BTC cost basis concentration band | $80,000 to $126,000 | Dense cluster highlighted by CryptoVizArt for remaining holders near cycle highs |
| Approx. extreme supply region above $80,000 | ~495,000 BTC | Presented as break-even level region by the CBD heatmap |
| Bitcoin level referenced last week | ~$59,000 | Price context in the article |
| Bitcoin level referenced Monday | ~ $63,200 | Price context in the article |
The so-what for traders and long-term holders
This Glassnode/CBD view is essentially a supply-overhang argument built from cost-basis math. It does not claim Bitcoin must follow a particular path. It claims the odds of a durable recovery improve only after the market reprices enough of that $80k–$126k holder cluster.
If the supply bands don’t soften, rallies may still face resistance when old break-even expectations meet price strength. If the bands do migrate down, then demand can build on a less cluttered cost basis map.