Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, has sketched three scenarios that would put Bitcoin at risk of printing a new market low. The timing is the point. This comes as Bitcoin trades near $62,562, its lowest level since February, and as US spot Bitcoin ETFs hit “historically severe” outflows, according to a CoinDesk report.
CoinDesk also cites Bitcoin Foundation tracking that spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.42 billion in outflows for the week ending May 29, described as the third-worst weekly result in history. Over the prior three weeks, total outflows exceeded $4.21 billion. If those flows keep worsening, Kendrick’s framework says the institutional demand cushion built since January 2024 could thin out fast.
The three “ifs” Kendrick says matter
Kendrick’s warning does not hinge on a crypto-native catalyst. CoinDesk frames the analysis as macro, institutional flows, and market structure rather than protocol updates or token-specific news. The three conditions are:
- ETF outflows keep accelerating, continuing to remove an institutional bid.
- The Federal Reserve delivers a hawkish surprise in June and July, specifically if the dot plot does not signal rate cuts. The implication is straightforward in Kendrick’s setup. If the market’s expected tailwind gets yanked, downside pressure can intensify.
- Bitcoin dominance breaks below the 52–54% range, currently above 60%. Standard Chartered’s prior framework, as reported by CoinDesk, links that breakdown to broader crypto selling instead of rotation within the sector.
In other words, the bank is mapping conditions where liquidity and risk appetite fail at the macro level, while ETF flows and cross-crypto positioning stop supporting Bitcoin.
What the bank is watching in the price picture
CoinDesk adds another layer to the caution. Bitcoin has fallen to the lower boundary of the Power Law corridor, a long-term valuation model plotted on a logarithmic scale. The Power Law Oscillator dropped to 4.4%. That is presented as Bitcoin being priced cheaper than 95.6% of historical readings versus its long-term trend.
Kendrick’s other anchor point is technical. CoinDesk reports that Bitcoin is trading near its 200-week simple moving average. The bank argues that prior bear markets tended to end around the same moving average. It is not a guarantee, but it is the kind of historical pattern Kendrick uses to argue the market might be closer to a bottom than a continued break.
Constructive for later, but the path can still be ugly
The “warning” label can mislead. CoinDesk says Kendrick told clients directly: “I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.” Standard Chartered’s revised February 2026 forecast remains $100,000 for Bitcoin. CoinDesk frames that as roughly a 60% recovery from current levels.
I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with [BTC](/coin/btc) at $100k and [ETH](/coin/eth) at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.
Still, Kendrick’s three-condition map is about what could happen before any hoped-for rebound. CoinDesk emphasizes that the next few weeks of ETF flow data, Fed signaling, and dominance metrics would determine which scenario plays out.
Key data cited by CoinDesk and Standard Chartered
| Metric | Latest figure in source text | Why it matters in Kendrick’s framework |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | ~$62,562 | Trading near the 200-week SMA and Power Law lower boundary |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows (week ending May 29) | $1.42B | “Historically severe.” Accelerating outflows remove institutional demand |
| Total ETF outflows (prior 3 weeks) | >$4.21B | Confirms sustained pressure rather than a single-week dip |
| ETF flow record | “Third-worst weekly result in history” | Signals how unusual the selling is |
| Power Law Oscillator | 4.4% | Implies price is cheaper than 95.6% of historical readings vs trend |
| Bitcoin dominance | Above 60% | If it breaks below 52–54%, it can reflect broader crypto selling |
The practical read
If you only take one thing from Kendrick’s briefing, take this. It is not a bet on Bitcoin fundamentals changing overnight. It is a bet on whether macro expectations, ETF flows, and relative market positioning keep lining up in a way that historically precedes deeper drawdowns.
CoinDesk’s report suggests Standard Chartered thinks those variables could still drive downside in the near term. But it also frames the current zone as potentially part of a longer-term “buying zone” toward the end of 2026, with Bitcoin at $100,000 and ETH at $4,000.
That is the core tension. The downside path is plausible under Kendrick’s conditions. The longer-term destination is still part of Standard Chartered’s case. For now, the deadlines are external. Watch ETF outflow prints and Fed signaling through June and July, then check whether dominance stays above or slips below the 52–54% band.