XRP jumped 8% to around $1.14 on Wednesday as on-chain metrics suggested the token had reached capitulation territory among holders.
The move hinges on two versions of the MVRV (Mean Value Realized Value) ratio, which measures how far below or above their entry price current holders sit. According to data from analytics firm Santiment cited by CoinDesk, XRP's 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios both dropped to roughly −45% and −47% respectively—levels Santiment says the token has never reached before.
A compressed MVRV means most holders are underwater, which in contrarian framing suggests limited room for further capitulation. If underwater holders have already absorbed steep losses, the logic goes, future price moves face less selling pressure from bag holders desperate to exit near breakeven.
The timing matters. XRP has endured a rough cycle since its 2021 peak, and the legal settlement with the SEC in 2023 eliminated one major overhang. Traders now watch loss ratios as potential inflection points rather than directional cues.
For XRP holders, the distinction cuts both ways. Record loss levels can signal exhaustion and mark a genuine floor, but they also mean most of the token's recent buyers are sitting in red. Recovery from such depths requires sustained buying pressure from fresh capital—not a given in crypto markets. The 8% pop reflects some traders' conviction that the floor has formed, though sustained momentum depends on whether that conviction spreads beyond the on-chain interpretation crowd.