XRP slid Wednesday to its lowest level in four months, printing about $1.14. The desk’s read on the move is simple. The price action is weak on charts, and on-chain signals do not look like the usual “whales are quietly buying” setup.
Charts point to a capped rebound
Market expert Sam Daodu argues that there is “not much for bulls to lean on” because XRP is trading below its key moving averages. Daodu specifically flags that XRP sits under the 7, 14, and 30-day averages, which implies a bearish short-term trend across multiple timeframes.
Even when XRP bounces, Daodu says it struggles against a higher cluster of weekly EMAs. Those weekly exponential moving averages are between $1.50 and $1.78, which he frames as an effective ceiling that has capped rebound attempts.
Daodu also uses the 200-day moving average as a regime line. He places that reference around $1.64. In his framing, XRP would need a “long climb back” from about $1.17 at the time of writing to reclaim a more constructive trend structure.
Whale withdrawals on Binance hit a 4-year low
On-chain data adds pressure. Daodu points to whale withdrawals from Binance as an indicator traders often treat as bullish when it rises, since large holders move tokens off exchanges.
Instead, withdrawals have fallen sharply. Over the past 30 days, whale withdrawals are down to roughly 978 million XRP, which Daodu describes as the lowest reading since 2021.
CryptoQuant data, as referenced by Daodu, also suggests large-holder accumulation has stalled during this decline. The takeaway for readers who track flows. If big holders are not adding while price weakens, the “buyers step in later” thesis loses one of its usual props.
Three levels traders are watching, plus one vote deadline
Daodu builds a bearish roadmap around three price levels. The first is $1.14, framed as the near-term technical target. The second is $1.11, the low from February. The third is $1, which Daodu links to the monthly Bollinger floor and treats as a potential endpoint if selling pressure persists.
He also notes that this setup could extend if two conditions stay unfavorable. Macro conditions not easing. And whales staying reluctant to accumulate.
Separately, Daodu highlights regulatory timing. He points to the CLARITY Act floor vote scheduled before the August recess. A vote would clarify the regulatory picture. A lack of a vote, he argues, could worsen disappointment and add to macro pressure.
What would change the tone
Daodu’s path-forward checklist is narrow but actionable.
First, can XRP defend $1.14? In his view, holding that level keeps a bullish case alive. Losing it could extend toward $1.11 and potentially the $1 area.
Second, do whale withdrawals from Binance climb back above the current ~978 million XRP level over the past 30 days? Daodu treats rising withdrawals as evidence of renewed accumulation by large holders.
Third, does the broader market improve. Daodu cautions that the drop is not necessarily driven by XRP-specific fundamentals. He argues XRP is moving with the rest of crypto, so the next leg may reflect broader conditions as much as any asset-specific story.
Key levels and signals cited by Sam Daodu
| Category | Level or metric | What it implies in the bearish setup |
|---|---|---|
| Price floor to watch | $1.14 | Near-term technical target and defense level |
| Prior low | $1.11 | Next stop if $1.14 breaks |
| Monthly reference | $1.00 | Potential endpoint tied to monthly Bollinger floor |
| Weekly resistance band | $1.50 to $1.78 | Weekly EMAs clustered overhead, cap for rebounds |
| Regime line | ~ $1.64 (200-day MA) | “Long climb back” to restore bullish regime |
| Whale withdrawals (30d) | ~978M XRP | 4-year low, suggests weaker off-exchange accumulation |
| Large-holder accumulation | Stalled (CryptoQuant) | Big holders not adding with conviction |
| Regulatory catalyst | CLARITY Act floor vote before August recess | Clarity could reduce macro disappointment; delay could worsen it |