XRP is stuck in what analyst EGRAG CRYPTO calls a “macro decision zone.” The next monthly candle close, they argue, will decide whether the token confirms a double bottom or slides back toward $0.80.
EGRAG CRYPTO points to a bounce after XRP touched a 19-month low of $1.05 last week. The problem for bulls is that the token has not reclaimed the levels that would make the reversal argument feel real.
The levels traders are watching
EGRAG CRYPTO’s framework is simple. A monthly close above $1.40 would confirm that the $1.05 low was the bottom. From there, EGRAG CRYPTO says “genuine bullish recovery” starts only with a reclaim of $1.61 to $1.65. They add extra confirmation if XRP breaks above $1.70.
On the bearish side, EGRAG CRYPTO says the setup can fail if XRP loses momentum. In that case, they warn of a retreat to $0.80.
The notable part of that downside call is what they did not include. EGRAG CRYPTO did not flag any intermediate support between the current trading area and $0.80 if the structure breaks down. Their message is blunt in text form.
“Hold ground then → double bottom possible,” EGRAG CRYPTO wrote. “Lose momentum then → $0.80 retest likely.”
Earlier, EGRAG CRYPTO also said XRP reached $1.1860 and was “building momentum for the second push,” with a short-term target range at $1.19 to $1.25. They warned that losing $1.14 could open the door to a retest of $1.10.
Fellow market watcher CasiTrades offered a complementary view focused on Fibonacci levels and Coinbase. CasiTrades said XRP “perfectly” hit a major .786 macro Fibonacci support at $1.09 on Coinbase.
CasiTrades then flagged $1.19 and $1.27 as resistance zones. They suggested that if those areas fail, XRP could see a deeper low toward the $0.90 area. If XRP clears both resistance zones, CasiTrades argued it would signal the market is building a new trend rather than setting up another move lower.
The macro catalyst traders are citing
Some traders are trying to look past daily noise. ChartNerd noted that XRP closed below its 200-week simple moving average, and said that in the past this has come just before cycle lows.
At the time of writing in the source report, XRP gained just over 1% over 24 hours. The source tied that uptick to a Japan-related development. It says SBI Bank launched a program that lets customers exchange their deposit interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or XRP.
Still, the broader tape is not flattering. The source report says XRP was down more than 8% over the last seven days, underperforming the broader crypto market, which shed about 5.4% over the same period.
Performance rundown and sentiment signals
The source report frames the bigger picture with multiple time horizons. XRP is down over 18% across one month and nearly 49% year-on-year. It also sits about 68% below its July 2025 all-time high.
It’s not all framed as bad news, though. Santiment, cited in the source report using its 30-day MVRV metric, said XRP is in a “fair buy” zone where long-term investors could start accumulating.
And ChartNerd’s longer-horizon view is also anchored to a cycle structure rather than a near-term trigger. The source report says ChartNerd placed Fibonacci extension targets at $8, $13, and $27, but only “as long as a proper cycle bottom forms before year-end.”
Key levels and claims from the source
| Item | Level(s) | Who said it | What it’s for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmation of the $1.05 low | Monthly close above $1.40 | EGRAG CRYPTO | Confirm the bottom |
| Bullish recovery threshold | Reclaim $1.61 to $1.65 | EGRAG CRYPTO | “Genuine bullish recovery begins” |
| Extra confirmation | Break above $1.70 | EGRAG CRYPTO | Reinforce the recovery case |
| Downside trigger | Momentum fades, retest $0.80 | EGRAG CRYPTO | Bear case path |
| Short-term push target | $1.19 to $1.25 | EGRAG CRYPTO | Second push |
| Bearish crack point | Lose $1.14, retest $1.10 | EGRAG CRYPTO | Downside escalation |
| Macro Fibonacci support | .786 at $1.09 (Coinbase) | CasiTrades | Support touch claim |
| Resistance zones | $1.19 and $1.27 | CasiTrades | Failure could deepen lows |
| Deeper low area | Toward $0.90 | CasiTrades | If resistances fail |
What to watch next
For now, the source story keeps circling one practical deadline. The next monthly candle close. EGRAG CRYPTO treats that as the line between “double bottom possible” and “$0.80 retest likely.”
Meanwhile, the Japan SBI Bank program is the kind of narrative catalyst traders like to point at when price turns up. But even the source report’s own numbers show XRP still trails both short- and mid-term performance versus broader crypto, so the rebound still has to earn its way into the bigger chart.
Either way, XRP here remains an asset with downside and upside risk, and the thresholds highlighted in the source read like a checklist rather than a certainty. If those levels never get reclaimed, the bullish arguments may stay theoretical.