XRP is sitting on a familiar kind of chart setup, according to market commentator Celal Kucuker, who argues a monthly momentum signal that showed up before past rally phases is repeating again.
The core claim is straightforward but not guaranteed. Kucuker’s analysis says XRP’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 42.7. That level lands near the lowest readings seen in XRP’s trading history, a zone the analyst says has appeared only three times before. Kucuker ties each of those earlier instances to a subsequent “substantial price run higher.”
The RSI extreme that showed up before prior rally windows
Kucuker’s breakdown lists three historical periods where the monthly RSI entered similar low territory.
- November 2015: monthly RSI 46.7, with XRP trading around $0.0040. Kucuker says this setup preceded the broad 2017 rally cycle.
- March 2020: monthly RSI 43.7 during widespread selling, with XRP reportedly reaching a low near $0.104 and rebounding later to $1.97 by April 2021.
- August 2022: monthly RSI 43.9, with prices dropping to about $0.31. Kucuker says XRP later climbed to $3.40 by January 2025.
Kucuker frames the present chart as the same “extreme low zone” returning again. He also highlights a long-term structure on the monthly chart, describing XRP as holding above a lower support line of an ascending channel.
A critical nuance. In all three prior examples, momentum at depth either coincided with the price bottom or arrived just before sustained recovery. That timing pattern is exactly what technicians tend to watch for. It also means the signal is about regime change risk, not an automatic entry trigger.
What’s different this time, per Kucuker
Kucuker’s analysis argues the current setup is defined by the pairing of two conditions.
First, price is holding above the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has reportedly contained XRP’s movement for nearly a decade. Second, the monthly momentum reading has already fallen back to historically low ground.
The NewsBTC source text adds current price context: XRP has dropped more than 10% in June alone, and early-month trading reportedly pushed it to multi-month lows around $1.18. It also notes a 9% decline over the last week.
Kucuker’s takeaway is that the combination matters more than either condition in isolation. In prior cycles, the depth in momentum was not just present. It arrived while the price was also sitting at a structural support area.
Where the analyst expects the chart to “want” to go
If Kucuker’s pattern recognition holds, the first logical milestone in the chart would be the upper resistance boundary of the same ascending channel.
In the source text, the reasoning is that whenever XRP tests the channel’s lower support, it has “eventually moved toward the upper boundary.” That’s a directional expectation based on historical chart behavior, not a guarantee.
For a reader trying to translate this into operational risk terms, the practical point is about levels. The lower support line is framed as the feature that must hold for the bullish interpretation to keep breathing. Meanwhile, momentum at extreme lows is framed as the signal that often shows up at or just before recovery windows in the analyst’s historical scan.
Key chart facts cited in the analysis
| Item | Value or period | Source detail |
|---|---|---|
| Current monthly RSI (XRP) | 42.7 | Celal Kucuker analysis in NewsBTC source text |
| Historical RSI low zone occurrences | 3 times | Celal Kucuker analysis |
| Nov 2015 | RSI 46.7, price ~ $0.0040 | Celal Kucuker analysis |
| Mar 2020 | RSI 43.7, low ~ $0.104 | Celal Kucuker analysis |
| Aug 2022 | RSI 43.9, price ~ $0.31 | Celal Kucuker analysis |
| Jun 2026 price context | down >10% in June, multi-month lows ~ $1.18 | NewsBTC source text |
| Channel structure | XRP held above lower boundary of an ascending channel | NewsBTC source text |
How to treat this kind of signal
This setup is the kind that technicians love because it gives them a repeatable condition. But it still comes with the usual caveat: the source text’s “every major rally” framing is conditional on historical similarity holding.
The more grounded part of the argument is the method. Kucuker isn’t just pointing to a random indicator. He ties the monthly RSI extreme to long-term structural support within an ascending channel and then maps prior occurrences to later upside phases.
Even so, the present price pressure mentioned in the source text is real. June’s decline and weekly weakness show that XRP can sit near support and still churn before any recovery trend locks in. If the channel floor breaks, the logic of the pattern weakens fast.
Featured image from Gemini. Chart from TradingView.