Bitcoin has a long-running head start over XRP in relative terms, and a technical analyst says the gap may not be done widening yet.
Chart analyst Chart Nerd argues XRP/BTC remains stuck under descending resistance that has held since 2017. In his read, each attempted recovery since then has failed to clear the prior peak, leaving XRP with a pattern of lower highs against Bitcoin rather than a clean reversal.
What happened
Chart Nerd points to a specific downside target on the XRP/BTC pair. He says XRP could fall another 59% to 62% against Bitcoin before finding “solid ground.” That target lands in the 0.0000071 to 0.0000065 range. According to the analyst, buyers have historically stepped in around that zone.
The broader backdrop is XRP’s persistent underperformance since 2017. Chart Nerd highlights several reference points on XRP/BTC: peaks near 0.000097 in January 2019, then 0.0000426 in November 2020, 0.0000390 in May 2021, 0.0000297 in July 2023, and most recently 0.0000257 in January 2026. Each push, he says, stalled beneath the same long-running descending resistance line.
Chart Nerd also calls out the last few months as evidence that relative rotation hasn’t arrived. In a post dated May 25, 2026, he says BTC climbed 60K to 80K while XRP/BTC lost its 20-month exponential moving average. The implication in his analysis is that XRP has not attracted the same marginal inflows that tend to show up when capital rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins.
Why it matters
Against Bitcoin, XRP is still failing the “catch up” test. If the XRP/BTC pair keeps printing lower highs, that tends to mean rallies are vulnerable and that any strength in XRP’s price may not translate into better relative footing.
Chart Nerd’s thesis is also about where capital goes during Bitcoin-led periods. He says when XRP trails Bitcoin during a rally, it often signals investors remain in Bitcoin rather than rotating into altcoins. In his framing, capital either holds in BTC or exits the sector, and XRP participates less in the risk-on leg.
Market impact
The source text separates absolute performance from relative performance.
In dollar terms, it says XRP rose 37% from a February low of $1.12 to a May high of $1.54. But Chart Nerd reads that recovery as weaker than it looks because it did not hold above the 20-month exponential moving average on the XRP/BTC pair, which he treats as a sign of ongoing weakness.
Over the same three-month window, the text says BTC gained 38%, rising from a yearly low of $60,000 to $82,800. Chart Nerd links that gap to his “no rotation” view, arguing that the altcoin rally hasn’t shown up on the pair that matters for relative performance.
Here are the key levels cited in the source:
| Pair or asset | Level cited | What the analyst expects or signals |
|---|---|---|
| XRP/BTC | 0.0000071 to 0.0000065 | Potential “solid ground” zone after another 59% to 62% decline vs BTC |
| XRP/BTC | Peaks near 0.000097 (Jan 2019), 0.0000426 (Nov 2020), 0.0000390 (May 2021), 0.0000297 (Jul 2023), 0.0000257 (Jan 2026) | Lower-high sequence that stopped out beneath descending resistance |
| XRP (dollar terms) | $1.12 (Feb low), $1.54 (May high) | +37% recovery in USD that still failed to change relative structure |
| BTC (dollar terms) | $60,000 (yearly low), $82,800 (three-month high) | +38% rise while XRP lagged on XRP/BTC |
What to watch next
Chart Nerd’s outlook is not purely bearish in absolute terms. The source says he still expects higher XRP prices in the long run, but also expects XRP to continue lagging Bitcoin through most of 2026.
Other analysts in the same source are also pointing to further downside risk. It notes that chartist Ali Martinez flagged a possible drop for XRP toward the $0.73 region if selling pressure builds.
Near-term, the practical question for traders and holders is whether XRP/BTC reacts at the 0.0000071 to 0.0000065 zone Chart Nerd identifies, or whether the lower-high trend simply extends. If capital stays in Bitcoin during rallies, XRP’s relative recovery could remain capped.
Featured image: Unsplash. Charts referenced in the source: TradingView.