XRP is trying to bounce off recent lows. Glassnode’s on-chain readout says the chain activity doesn’t match a healthy comeback yet.
Profit-to-loss ratio drops to the worst since 2024
Glassnode flagged what it called “intense capitulation” via XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio. In an X post, Glassnode said the 90-day moving average (MA) of this ratio has fallen to 0.38, the lowest level since 2024.
The ratio matters because it compares realized profits to realized losses. Glassnode framed the current state bluntly. For every dollar of losses being realized, only 38 cents in profit are being realized. That dynamic reverses the 2025 peak, when the ratio surged to 50, meaning profit-taking outpaced loss-taking by a wide margin. Glassnode said the flip is now “fully inverted,” which it calls “a hallmark of intense capitulation.”
Fees collapse, not “just” a market cooldown
Glassnode didn’t stop at profit-loss flows. It also pointed to transaction fees as a proxy for demand.
According to Glassnode data cited in the report, the 90-day average of total transaction fees paid on the XRP network dropped from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to 500 XRP. That is a 91.5% fall.
Glassnode’s takeaway was also specific. It argued that a drop of this size is not a fee market adjustment. It reflects a near-total contraction in organic transaction demand on the network since the speculative peak.
For readers, the consequence is simple. Capitulation signals and fee contraction reinforce each other. When more holders are realizing losses and fewer users are paying meaningful fees, the rebound case gets harder to underwrite on-chain.
Price is down hard, but “bottom” talk comes with baggage
The report adds price context and cycle heuristics.
Over the past two weeks, XRP fell nearly 15%, reaching its lowest level since November 2024, according to the cited account in the piece. Analyst ChartNerd said XRP’s bear markets have historically lasted 400 to 790 days with 85% to 96% drops. The report claims XRP has corrected for roughly 350 days and is down about 71% from July highs.
ChartNerd’s caution is that the historical “distance to a bottom” is shrinking. The report quotes him saying the duration and percentage depth of these bears are diminishing over time, so the territory for a historical bottom between now and EOY is “fast approaching.” He also pointed to a technical detail. XRP closed below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week. ChartNerd said in prior cycles the structural bottom formed between 8 and 29 weeks after the first weekly close below this SMA.
Important nuance. This is pattern-based commentary, not a guarantee. Even if prior cycles rhyme, XRP still carries asset risk and on-chain stress is still showing up in the metrics Glassnode published.
The “buying zone” theory repeats, and so do targets
Market watcher Ali Martinez is cited for a longer-horizon setup. The report says Martinez believes XRP could be mirroring a pattern it has repeated since 2018 and is nearing a large buying zone from the last eight years. He also mentioned a trendline, saying every touch of it has historically marked a major turning point.
The report claims Martinez sees support in a zone between $0.70 and $0.90. It also says he called a rally back to $3 “a realistic scenario” and, if XRP breaks above eight-year resistance around $3.30, a next macro target between $8 and $13.
Those are scenario statements, not certainty. They also don’t directly override the on-chain reality Glassnode described. If fee activity remains contracted and realized profit-to-loss stays pinned near capitulation levels, “bottom” narratives can stay premature.
Key on-chain facts from Glassnode
| Metric (90-day MA unless noted) | Latest level cited | Prior context in report | What Glassnode says it implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio | 0.38 (lowest since 2024) | 2025 peak was 50 | Profit-taking flipped to loss-realization, a hallmark of intense capitulation |
| Total transaction fees paid (average) | 500 XRP | February 2025 was 5,900 XRP | A 91.5% drop reflects near-total contraction in organic transaction demand |
So what for XRP holders
Glassnode’s metrics line up like a checklist for capitulation: realized losses dominate profits, and fee-paying demand has contracted hard. Price narratives can argue about timing, but the on-chain signals described in this report argue that XRP’s rebound still needs more than hope.