Bitcoin’s recent tumble looks less like a shift in long-term strategy and more like a short-term flow problem, according to 10xResearch.
Inflation first, then the ETFs
10xResearch analyst Markus Thielen said the “main driver” behind bitcoin’s weakness was ETF selling that followed the “red-hot” April U.S. inflation data. In other words, macro pressure likely changed how market participants positioned through ETFs, and those ETF outflows then dragged spot.
That framing matters because it points to demand as the lever, not ideology. If flows dominate, then price action can lag behind narratives and improve or worsen quickly as data hits.
The next checkpoint: Wednesday’s CPI
Thielen also tied the timing of any rebound to the next macro release. He said the bounce “may hinge” on Wednesday’s CPI data.
This sets up a simple read-through for traders and investors watching from the sidelines. If CPI comes in closer to expectations, ETF selling pressure could ease. If it runs hot, the same mechanism that followed April inflation could reappear.
What the argument does not claim
Thielen’s comments, as reported by CoinDesk, do not suggest a structural break in bitcoin’s fundamentals. They also do not blame Strategy, the Wall Street firm name that appeared in the headline.
Instead, the dispute is narrow. The claim is about causality for the weakness. ETF selling after a specific inflation surprise is the culprit. The next scheduled CPI print is the test.
Why ETF flows amplify macro moves
ETF-linked markets compress the gap between macro data and price pressure. When inflation prints surprise to the upside, it can change rate expectations, risk appetite, and hedging behavior. Those shifts often show up first through funds that investors can buy or sell quickly.
So even if bitcoin’s broader adoption story remains intact, short-term ETF flows can still overwhelm it. That is the practical consequence of Thielen’s thesis.
| Factor | 10xResearch claim (via CoinDesk) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| April U.S. inflation data | Came in “red-hot” and preceded ETF selling | Suggests macro surprise drove ETF outflows, which pressured bitcoin |
| Driver behind weakness | “Main driver” was ETF selling, not strategy | Points to flows over narrative |
| Near-term catalyst | Bounce “may hinge” on Wednesday’s CPI | Next macro print could flip the flow pressure |
Watch the CPI, but don’t assume a free rebound
CoinDesk reports Thielen’s view, and it is a flow-based one. That means markets could react sharply to the CPI number, but it does not guarantee a sustained recovery.
Assets like bitcoin carry risk, and ETF demand can reverse quickly when macro expectations shift. If CPI keeps inflation concerns alive, ETF selling pressure could return. If it cools, investors may not just stop selling, they may actively rebalance.
For now, the timeline is set by the calendar. Wednesday’s CPI is the next observable swing factor in 10xResearch’s explanation of why bitcoin has been weak.