A tribunal-sized coalition asks courts to deny Kalshi’s bid to pause the fight
A coalition of American Indian tribes is trying to stop prediction market operator Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from “undermin[ing]” tribal gaming laws on Indian land.
The effort runs through amicus briefs filed this month by a group called the “Tribal Amici.” It includes 30 federally recognized tribes and 11 Indian regulatory agencies.
In an amicus brief filed June 11, the Tribal Amici urged a court to deny Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction. The purpose of a preliminary injunction is straightforward. It asks a court to pause the other side’s actions while the case plays out. In this stage, the tribes argue Kalshi should not get that pause.
On June 15, the Tribal Amici also filed a brief supporting the State of New York’s opposition to the CFTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction in a separate fight. In both filings, the coalition argues the regulator and Kalshi are effectively reversing what Congress and the Supreme Court have already set.
The core argument. Private prediction markets would rewrite who controls gaming
The Tribal Amici say Kalshi’s and the CFTC’s actions amount to “a sub silentio reversal of congressional policy and Supreme Court precedent.” They also argue the move would “undermine existing tribal-state gaming compacts and regulatory frameworks.”
Their practical objection is about control.
The tribes claim prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket would be able to offer sports-betting contracts that operate under “their own private regulation” rather than tribal or state regulation on state and tribal lands. They say that would:
- let prediction markets redirect gaming revenues away from tribal and state governments
- reduce tribal self-determination
The coalition also frames these revenues as “vital,” arguing they should instead fund government services, tribal programs, and economic development tied to self-governance and self-sufficiency.
Where Kalshi is stuck. An Ohio ruling called its contracts “not swaps”
Kalshi’s current posture traces to an Ohio federal court decision.
The Ohio court ruled against Kalshi’s 2025 lawsuit in March. The court said Kalshi’s sports event contracts are not “swaps.” Kalshi is appealing both that ruling and Ohio’s rejection of Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction.
That matters because the Tribal Amici are not just objecting to the product. They are pushing back against the idea that a court should intervene early enough to let Kalshi operate through an injunction while the appeal continues.
The CFTC fight with New York tribes. Jurisdiction and compact approvals
The amicus arguments also target what the Tribal Amici call the CFTC’s jurisdictional overreach.
The CFTC sued the State of New York in April, alleging it infringed on the regulator’s jurisdiction when it sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan over alleged gambling promotion.
In the Tribal Amici’s June 15 filing, they argue the CFTC would undermine legal agreements between New York tribes and the state. They say those agreements are approved by the United States and reflect a “carefully balance[d]” framework for regulating tribal gaming in New York.
Prediction markets keep colliding with state bans and regulator proposals
This isn’t only a Kalshi problem.
The story of prediction markets and gambling law is spreading across state lines. Polymarket, for example, this week filed a lawsuit against Minnesota over a prediction market ban that takes effect in August.
Meanwhile, the CFTC is considering a broader policy change. Protos reports that the regulator is looking at classifying contracts involving terrorism, assassinations, war, gaming, or illegal activity as illegal and against the public interest.
Protos also adds a volume reality check. While courts argue about jurisdiction and injunction standards, prediction markets are processing large sums tied to sports events during the World Cup. Bloomberg, as cited by Protos, reports Kalshi has already processed $5.1 billion in notional trading volume during the World Cup. Protos also says crypto analysts claim Polymarket attracted $1.6 billion in a single week.
What to watch next
The immediate deadlines are court-focused, not product-focused. The next key step in Kalshi’s case is how the court treats the Tribal Amici’s request to deny a preliminary injunction.
In the CFTC matter involving New York, the key is the court’s response to the Tribal Amici’s support of New York’s opposition to the CFTC’s own preliminary injunction motion.
| Item | What the Tribal Amici filed or claimed | Timing and target |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi motion for preliminary injunction | Urged denial, arguing “sub silentio reversal” and undermining tribal-state gaming compacts | Amicus filed June 11 |
| New York opposition to CFTC motion for preliminary injunction | Supported New York’s stance on jurisdiction and compact approvals | Amicus filed June 15 |
| Ohio ruling affecting Kalshi | Sports event contracts aren’t “swaps.” Kalshi appealed and lost its injunction request | Ohio decision in March 2026, per Protos |
| CFTC lawsuit tied to New York | Claims New York infringed CFTC jurisdiction by suing Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan | Filed April 2026, per Protos |
| Broader CFTC consideration | Considering classifying certain contracts as illegal and against the public interest | Per Protos, ongoing consideration |