TD Cowen flagged a sharp headwind for the crypto industry's legislative agenda: the Clarity Act, the bipartisan market structure bill meant to clarify which regulator oversees digital asset trading, is unlikely to pass before the November midterm election.
The firm cited a crowded congressional schedule and competing demands on floor time. Election-year legislating typically shrinks as members prioritize reelection messaging and fewer votes reach the House and Senate floor in the final weeks before voters go to the polls. The Clarity Act would assign spot and futures trading to the CFTC and securities laws to the SEC, ending years of jurisdictional overlap that has effectively allowed both agencies to set crypto rules through enforcement and guidance.
Despite bipartisan backing in previous sessions, the bill has stalled before. Sponsors have reintroduced it multiple times without reaching a floor vote, a pattern that reflects both genuine policy disagreement and the reality that crypto regulation rarely climbs the priority stack in a crowded session. The newsroom has not seen evidence that the midterm calendar includes dedicated space for the Clarity Act among the dozens of bills competing for attention.
Industry groups have pushed for clarity on which regulator claims jurisdiction over which products, arguing that ambiguity forces them to comply with overlapping rules or face enforcement action from either agency. The CFTC has signaled openness to the framework; the SEC has been less enthusiastic about ceding oversight of digital assets that might qualify as securities under its reading of the law.
If the bill does not clear Congress this fall, the timeline for passage could shift depending on which party controls the chamber after November. The industry is watching the outcome, though both chambers would need to move the text in tandem for it to reach the president's desk.