Ethereum’s recovery is real, but it’s not out of the woods yet.
Crypto Potato reports ETH slid toward the $1.5K region and then snapped back. The bounce improved short-term sentiment. It didn’t fix the bigger problem. On higher timeframes, the structure still favors sellers, with ETH trading below major moving averages and under a long-term descending trendline. The next few sessions matter because this could either mature into a steadier recovery or fade into a relief rally inside a larger downtrend.
Daily chart: the ceiling is getting closer
On the daily timeframe, Crypto Potato says ETH is still under technical pressure despite the rebound. Price briefly swept below the demand zone around $1.5K, then buyers stepped in and pushed it back toward $1.7K.
The key detail is where ETH sits versus long-term trend gauges. Crypto Potato notes ETH is below the 100-day moving average near $2.1K and the 200-day moving average around $2.4K. That positioning keeps the higher-timeframe trend firmly bearish.
Upside attempts also run into a long-term descending trendline from prior highs. Crypto Potato frames that line as a recurring cap on rallies.
For “where sellers might reappear,” Crypto Potato points to Fibonacci retracement levels from the selloff leg. The first resistance sits at the 0.5 level around $1.77K. Then come the 0.618 level near $1.83K and the 0.786 level around $1.92K. In this setup, those areas could act as rejection zones if sellers still control the broader trend.
4-hour chart: buyers have a support anchor
The lower timeframe looks healthier, but it’s conditional.
Crypto Potato says after capitulating into the $1.5K low, ETH formed a reactionary bounce. It’s now getting support from a bullish fair value gap around $1.64K. That zone is described as immediate demand for a short-term pullback.
Momentum is also improving on this view. Crypto Potato adds that RSI has moved above the midpoint level, signaling better momentum after the selloff.
Still, ETH hasn’t cleared the liquidity where bears may want to sell. Crypto Potato says price remains below the key Fibonacci resistance cluster between $1.75K and $1.85K. This band is now the primary liquidity zone where sellers could try to regain control.
Crypto Potato outlines two paths. A continuation toward $1.75K to $1.85K is possible if ETH holds above the $1.64K fair value gap. If buyers can reclaim $1.77K, Crypto Potato expects a possible short-squeeze path toward $1.83K and $1.92K.
The risk is straightforward. Losing the fair value gap support near $1.64K would weaken the recovery structure and raise the odds of another test of the $1.5K low.
Sentiment check: Coinbase Premium is still negative
Price action alone doesn’t tell you who’s actually stepping in.
Crypto Potato uses the Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Coinbase prices to offshore exchanges as a proxy for U.S. spot demand. The latest reading is still below zero at about -0.04, which Crypto Potato interprets as relatively weak U.S. spot demand.
The index did bounce off uglier levels. Crypto Potato says it rebounded sharply from extreme negative readings near -0.15. That lines up with the rebound in ETH, suggesting selling intensity may be easing.
But for a more durable bullish reversal, Crypto Potato says the metric would ideally reclaim positive territory and stay above zero. Until then, the desk’s takeaway from Crypto Potato is that the bounce looks more like relief from oversold pressure than evidence of consistent institutional accumulation.
Key levels and signals from the report
| Area | What Crypto Potato highlights | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| $1.5K | Prior demand area and recent low | Break or hold often dictates the next move |
| $1.64K | Bullish fair value gap support | Losing it weakens the recovery structure |
| $1.77K | Daily Fibonacci 0.5 resistance | Potential rejection or trigger for follow-through |
| $1.83K | Daily Fibonacci 0.618 resistance | Next rejection zone, or squeeze target |
| $1.92K | Daily Fibonacci 0.786 resistance | Upper ceiling on this map |
| ~-$0.04 | Coinbase Premium Index reading | Negative still suggests weaker U.S. spot demand |
| -$0.15 | Prior extreme negative premium | Context for “capitulation-like” selling |
None of this is guaranteed. Technical levels can fail fast, and sentiment proxies can lag.
But Crypto Potato’s framing is clear: ETH needs to defend the $1.64K support and clear the $1.77K to $1.85K liquidity zone to make the recovery feel less like a pause in a downtrend.