Hyperliquid HIP-4 draws closer, posing a direct competitive threat to Polymarket

Hyperliquid is testing a plan that could turn it into one of the most direct threats Polymarket has faced. The decentralized exchange is publicly working on HIP-4. If HIP-4 ships, traders could place binary bets on real-world outcomes, elections, macro events, and crypto price moves. The pitch is simple. Keep the same margin account used for perpetual futures. No platform hopping and no fund transfers.

HIP-4 also has a familiar co-author. CoinDesk source text says John Wang, head of crypto at Kalshi, co-authored the HIP-4 proposal. It adds that Kalshi and Hyperliquid formalized a partnership in March to bring on-chain prediction markets together. That matters because the source text frames Polymarket as the one “most exposed” in this setup. The argument is that Kalshi did not just fail to block a competitor. It provided Hyperliquid with a roadmap.

Competitive pressure is about overlap, not vibes

The source text describes Hyperliquid as a third infrastructure-heavy player, not a small rival. It also highlights capital and momentum. CoinDesk source text claims Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in March. It also says Polymarket is reportedly raising $400 million at a $15 billion valuation.

Then it gets specific about Polymarket’s user risk. CoinDesk source text cites data from on-chain researcher Fleck. It says 3.3% of Polymarket users are already active on Hyperliquid and that this group produces roughly 12% of Polymarket’s volume. In the source text’s framing, those users act like whales. HIP-4 gives them a reason to consolidate activity into a single Hyperliquid margin account.

The gaps that could slow the threat

Hyperliquid has constraints. CoinDesk source text says the platform restricts U.S. users and runs with a lean team. It contrasts that with Polymarket’s approach, which the source text describes as relying on internal staff to curate markets and manage disputes. It also says Polymarket routes resolutions through UMA’s optimistic oracle. Scaling similar oversight without ballooning costs or quality is presented as an open challenge.

The source text also points to timing uncertainty. HIP-4 has not confirmed a mainnet launch date or finalized its oracle infrastructure. That means the competitive threat may still be weeks or months away, not immediate.

It concludes with operational history and funding. CoinDesk source text says Bob Diamond, chair of Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. trading as PURR, filed an S-1 to raise up to $1 billion more. It also claims Hyperliquid saw oil-linked contracts cross $1 billion in single-day volume during the Iran war period, when traditional commodity markets were closed. The source text’s real question is whether Hyperliquid can handle prediction market complexity, not whether it can handle high volume.