The newsroom reports that HTX Research says crypto markets have stopped reacting cleanly to simple rate expectations. In its view, the Federal Reserve’s leadership transition from Jerome Powell’s unified guidance toward Kevin Warsh’s anticipated “contested” approach is changing how traders price policy risk.
HTX Research frames the shift as an end to a “Fed Put” dynamic. It argues sticky inflation around 3% and elevated real rates leave fewer expectations of near-term cuts. That matters because, according to HTX Research, higher real yields raise the hurdle rate for speculative positions and squeeze leverage-heavy parts of the ecosystem.
The note points to perpetual swaps and high-yield DeFi protocols as particularly affected. HTX Research describes a “carry cost” problem in a higher-rate environment and says this drains liquidity that previously supported “alt-season” style expansions. Instead, the report claims liquidity rotates toward themes like RWAs, on-chain yield, and infrastructure such as ETH staking.
HTX Research also raises the stakes on USD credibility. It suggests that if hawkish Fed views intensify economic friction or if political interference becomes too visible, markets could reprice how much they trust the U.S. dollar. In that scenario, HTX Research calls out Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge against institutions rather than a pure “risk-on” asset.
On stablecoins, the same HTX Research note highlights growth past $300B as evidence of an “escape hatch” for on-chain finance. The overall message is not that crypto is immune to macro. HTX Research’s argument is that policy uncertainty now travels with crypto risk pricing, forcing market participants to model a less predictable policy path.