ChartNerd’s case for a shallower XRP bear market
On June 8, technical analyst ChartNerd argued XRP’s current bear market is behaving differently from prior cycles. In his comparison, past XRP bear phases usually lasted between 400 and 790 days, with drawdowns around 85% to 90% from peak levels.
ChartNerd said the present correction has run for roughly 350 days and sits nearly 70% below the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. He treats that “lessening severity” as the signal worth watching. In his words, the “territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching.”
He also set a guardrail. ChartNerd wrote that the odds of an immediate expansion might be low, but a cycle bottom could still be “on the horizon” before the end of 2026.
The $8, $13, $27 path is conditional, not guaranteed
ChartNerd’s bearish-to-bullish bridge has a condition. He didn’t rule out XRP taking additional downside in the coming months to actually form the cycle low. After that hypothetical low, he expects an accumulation phase, then a move toward Fibonacci extension targets of $8, $13, and $27.
That matters because the targets are not a prediction of straight-line upside. They hinge on the market first establishing a true cycle bottom, then working through a post-bottom accumulation stage.
He also flagged a notable exception in XRP’s history: the 2014 bear market. That cycle reportedly saw a 96% drop over about 210 days. Yet XRP still took more than 1,200 days to break out beyond its previous high, with a major wick low in late 2017 and a January 2018 peak. ChartNerd’s point looks less like “this time is different” and more like “timelines can stretch after the bottom.”
Where XRP trades now, and why spot ETF flows matter
At the time CryptoPotato published the post, XRP was priced around $1.15. The report places it about 12% lower than a week earlier and 19% below where it stood a month prior.
It also notes a short-term level test. XRP fell to roughly $1.05, the lowest point in 19 months, then rallied to about $1.20 before pulling back.
The more actionable detail in the piece is spot ETF flow data. CryptoPotato reports that spot XRP ETFs closed last week with a net inflow of $2.62 million. It calls that small on its face, but positions it against larger products that saw opposite flows during the same period.
According to the same source text, Bitcoin ETF counterparts bled more than $1.7 billion, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $173 million. HYPE ETFs brought in nearly $17 million, while funds tracking Litecoin (LTC), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hedera (HBAR) saw zero action.
Here is the compact fact table from the CryptoPotato excerpt:
| Item | Figure | Timeframe / context |
|---|---|---|
| XRP price (at time of writing) | ~$1.15 | Reported snapshot |
| Drop vs week ago | ~12% | Reported |
| Drop vs month ago | ~19% | Reported |
| Weekly low | ~$1.05 | “Lowest position in 19 months” |
| Rally after low | ~$1.20 | Same move |
| Spot XRP ETF net inflow | $2.62M | “Closed last week” |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | -$1.7B+ | Same period |
| Spot Ethereum ETF flows | -$173M | Same period |
| HYPE ETFs net inflow | ~$17M | Same period |
| LTC, AVAX, HBAR ETF activity | $0 net action | Same period |
What to watch next
ChartNerd’s framework boils down to a timing debate. His historical comparison claims XRP’s current downside has been milder and shorter than prior bear markets, which would support a bottom setting up before the end of 2026. But the same analysis still allows for additional downside before any cycle low is confirmed.
For readers tracking “cycle bottom” narratives, the excerpt suggests the next checkpoints are straightforward: whether price continues to hold the reported correction pattern, and whether ETF demand stays positive in the face of wider outflows across major spot products.
If the cycle bottom does arrive, ChartNerd’s targets of $8, $13, and $27 come with a second requirement. XRP would still need that accumulation phase before any Fibonacci extension levels become relevant.